Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Oh well. Not enough cold air, as that was the issue all along. Next time it’s D5 or shorter only for tracking. Nothing performs well beyond that. Best we can hope at this point is for something to sneak up on us like last year’s January storm.
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One takeaway of mine is that if we’re not going to get a solid 50/50 low, we should probably root for a weaker wave that slides under us to retain the little cold air we have. Too strong, and it pumps too much warm air up from the south.
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At least with a stronger ridge up top over canada it’s hard to imagine this will cut. But stranger things have happened.
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Gefs noticeably weaker at 192
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For now it seems like a northern MD special. Hope it trends a little colder over my roof and gives me an inch or more. Not invested in that one, but a nice bonus if it happens.
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Definitely a lot of waffling up top with the gfs. Nice to see the canadian back on board. Biggest takeaway is the models definitely don’t have a handle on this at all yet. Couple more days we’ll have a better idea I’m sure.
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If the Op and ens go in opposite directions, which one usually caves to the other? (genuine question - I’m not up to date on models/ens skill performance)
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NAM shows nothing for 1/9
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If this lines up with the MJO 8-1 as depicted for this time frame, we could probably get another wave with the right pieces in place, including cold air. Maybe the first week of February.
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Just saw some dark clouds pass by to the north of me half an hour ago. Partly cloudy skies to the west, and breezy.
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Worth noting zero members showing a cutter.
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Damn, this is one of the best posts I've seen here in months! Kudos. I'm no expert on models, and know almost nothing about their skill, but this seems like a great way to track without getting burned too much. So to recap the 12z runs... - ensemble mean goes south of us - Op GFS cuts with 50s and rain - Op Euro dumps 2 ft over NC & S central VA, cold solidly in the 20s - Canadian? Who cares until we get under 7 days
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For that December cutter, the GFS held onto the S/E solutions and was the last to cave. This time, it's the other way around. Euro is still S/E while CMC and GFS went cutter (at least the Op runs).
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Yeah, and some good ones just sneak right up on us at the last possible minute. Like last year. And (not directed at you - but in general) no need to panic, but no need to get super invested at this point. We still have a trackable event next week, and that's all we can say for now.
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Chase to NC/GA mountains?
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At least it’s the GFS. If this were the Euro, it’s lights out.
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Even until game time.
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Both LWX and Mt Holly has eyes on the event next week with the usual uncertainty disclaimers.
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Fun prediction: both Euro and Gfs lose the storm tomorrow.. only to bring it back somewhere along the EC at day 6-7. Forum’s servers have a meltdown meanwhile.
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Getting burned a lot does strange things to us.
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Lets worry about those details at <D4, not D10… Just having a threat as depicted is interesting though.
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Still 10 days out, but I’m glad the Euro is showing a trackable threat… and not just the GFS being on its own.
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Ultra LR ensembles wash out individual waves. And also could be dead wrong about the longwave pattern when it's time to verify. I'm not saying we get cold in that timeframe, just supporting the above reason why they can't be trusted too much.
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As long as the Euro still has it, this is an extremely small window to score something. Maybe a 24-36 hour window to get all the pieces in the right places. In a fast flow like this under a nina base state, this is a little harder to do than getting 2 torpedoes on target like Luke did against the death star.
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My car thermometer usually has a warm bias, but it read 48 this morning. IAD went down to 55, and a local weather station nearest me in Ashburn said 54.
