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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03
  2. Terpeast
    Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing? I would. But one can dream.
  3. Terpeast
    Step number 1... get the cold air here first.
  4. Terpeast
    Replace 992 low N of the lakes with a 1035 high, and then maybe we got something.
  5. Terpeast
    Wasn’t the CFS a torch through and through just a few days ago? Either it’s picking up on a new and more favorable trend, or it’s just flip flopping.
  6. Terpeast
    I noticed that too, at least on the gefs. Maybe we can sneak into an overrunner somewhere around the last week of Jan
  7. Terpeast
    Ah, there we go. It's not just our problem. It's interesting (and unfortunate) how the similar land-ocean configuration leads to a long and wide swath of boiling ssts just offshore and how it's affecting seasonal snowfall in not just one place, but two (or more) places.
  8. Terpeast
    We see similar warm ssts off Japan. Wondering if Japan is also torching?
  9. Terpeast
    I was here in the easternwx days. I think the discussions we see today, occasional whining/trolling aside, are much better than in the past. Most non-met posters here can understand h5 maps and can interpret soundings, and contribute a lot of value to the discussion. Compare that with 15-20 years ago, when most non-met posters would just spam threads with “how much for Philly?” questions or when they’ll see snow in their backyards.
  10. Terpeast
    This is cold across Canada. Even if we’re at neutral or slightly warmer than average in our backyards, having colder -5 air to the north of us is way better than +10 all the way up across Hudson Bay to Newfoundland. Might get a 1-3” mix to rain event if timing is good enough. Or 2-6” thump with perfect timing. Can still whiff though.
  11. Terpeast
    And when you use a 34" screen, it's way better.
  12. Terpeast
    I was joking. That was meant to be funny I agree things will turn around at some point though.
  13. Terpeast
    Cloudy and gray, not a flake. 34. That’s what I get for celebrating the anafront flizzard in Dec
  14. Terpeast
    Maybe someone will step up and be our sacrificial lamb so we can get our good winters back.
  15. Terpeast
    Narrator: there’s no rabbit in the hat.
  16. Terpeast
    Probably.
  17. Terpeast
    I was in Silver Spring and remember that storm well. Got about a foot maybe 13”, most of it overnight. Rates were insane. I stayed awake through the whole thing and went to sleep after it ended. Good times
  18. Terpeast
    One glimmer of hope is the GEFS trended back cooler from the last 3 runs or so. Maybe just noise atm
  19. Terpeast
    Too late. Towel already thrown. Remember I forecasted a +3 Feb canonical nina to finish the winter. And no, it is not a reverse psychology trick I’m trying to pull on Mother Nature… … … (ok, maybe it is…)
  20. Terpeast
    Come back in a year.
  21. Terpeast
    Dark times indeed
  22. Terpeast
    Enjoy it bro. I was thinking of taking my family up this weekend too, but my kid got sick. Might try again in Feb if we don’t torch so bad.
  23. Terpeast
    Just don’t be so sensitive. Ji was just being Ji
  24. Terpeast
    Maybe it's time I admit I was wrong about how the warm W atlantic SSTs would affect us. I thought it would create a juicy baroclinic zone that makes any wave go BOOM. Instead it just pops a ridge up top and forces storms to cut. No cold air either, no CAD. Makes me wonder how in the world Ocean City got buried by those 4 bomb cyclones (if I counted correctly) in the last 5 years.
  25. Terpeast
    Another way to look at it: Even in bad patterns before, we may have had a SE ridge with cutter tracks, but we still had just enough antecedent cold air to the north so we'd get CAD overrunning 2-4/3-6" events before changeover or dry slot. Now? We don't have the cold air to the north of us. There goes our season padders that used to make "bad" patterns "not so bad" in the snowfall department.
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