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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Drinking a St Benardus Abt 12 tonight. Big bottle.
  2. Terpeast
    I don’t have the answers as I’m no expert on models. It does seem to me that they consistently underestimate the SER/WAR. Maybe they need to update them to account for that, especially if it’s become a permanent fixture. I hope I’m wrong and that all we need is a few cyclones to churn up those waters and when this nina is finally dead, maybe the whole thing can get a nice reset.
  3. Terpeast
    Which I’ll take.
  4. Terpeast
    Yep, as soon as that tilt goes neg, it’s going to cut.
  5. Terpeast
    Both euro and gfs cuts on 1/25. Calling that one a L and moving on to the next one. and the next… and the next… … (cue the waiting skeleton meme)
  6. Terpeast
    Psuhoffman log entry #35934
  7. Terpeast
    Well now that may help us a little then. Still need the cold air though, which we don’t have. Yet. Also as a whole, the W atlantic is still warm, but not on absolute fire like it was before.
  8. Terpeast
    More confluence up top, 540 thru dca. Too bad it’s the ICON lol
  9. Terpeast
    Think it’s just a modeling artifact. Wouldn’t read too much into it. When I see something like that I mentally “smooth” the track out, and to factor in the warm waters off NC/VA, adjust entire track west a good hundred miles.
  10. Terpeast
  11. Terpeast
    Yup, back to D10 ensemble tracking. Maybe another chase attempt at Canaan/Blackwater is in order for next weekend.
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah I remember those ice storms. Iciest winter I've ever seen. And that January storm it was raining/sleeting at 19 degrees.
  13. Terpeast
    Op euro verbatim has a brutal gradient. 10" in leesburg and less than 1" in DC proper. I hope for this forum's sake that doesn't happen.
  14. Terpeast
    Yeah, a lot depends on what the Jan 23 system does. It’s like a volleyball setter for the next wave.
  15. Terpeast
    Now if we can hold this look through Saturday’s model runs, I’ll start to get excited.
  16. Terpeast
    Maybe with a more SE track on the Jan 23 wave (still not thinking in play for us) we could get a better airmass setup for the next wave after that?
  17. Terpeast
    I see what you did there...
  18. Terpeast
    Good post. I agree, and was thinking similarly in that if our window is only 5 days, that’s not good enough. We need a good 2 week window of cold (doesn’t have to be arctic) with multiple waves. One might hit. But there has to be plenty of time for that to happen.
  19. Terpeast
    My thoughts today: - Jan 23 was never really in play for us - Before we get invested in a threat, question is how cold do we get and how long does the colder airmass last? - Not convinced this isn’t another headfake or can kick yet…
  20. Terpeast
    35 this morning when I went out. Some slick spots and a little ice on my windshield. Not sure what happened
  21. Terpeast
    I’m increasingly confident that the uber warmth in Canada will begin to get scoured out starting at D6-7. After that, its TBD whether that cold air gets far enough east.
  22. Terpeast
    That’s a hopium outcome, but I still suspect at least 2/3 of Feb will be warm. This nina is stubborn af, and ninos aren’t necessarily cold winters. My guess right now would be the first and last weeks of Feb will be cold, with march still being a wildcard.
  23. Terpeast
    Haha yeah totally, that’s why I disliked Bob Ryan. He seemed to revel in the snow lover’s disappointment. I liked Doug Hill way better.
  24. Terpeast
    I vividly remember that. I was practically yelling at the TV.
  25. Terpeast
    Took a nice walk outside. 52 here an Ashburn. Anytime we get a day like this, take advantage.
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