Terpeast

Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie

Oof, that didn’t pan out so well

Your analyses have been making a lot of sense these days. Nice work.

Does anyone have the enso prediction plots from this time a year ago?

Hopefully we get a lot of recurvers to churn those warm waters with little or no EC landfall

Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now.

Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps.

That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time.

Called it out a few days ago. It seemed physically impossible.

I do think we lost the neutrals (at least those that come after a nina) in this new base state. But I don't think we've lost the ninos, at least not yet. We should know by this time next year, for better or worse.

18x gfs hour 282, bowling ball cut off low cuts right through that 594 SE ridge like a hot knife through butter. Lol, yeah right

Let’s cross the spring predictability barrier first. We’ll know by June-ish.

Yep, this was much needed for them and I’m glad they’re putting a dent in their water crisis. I don’t think it will be long before they go on another multi-year drought, so they need whatever they can get now.

That SE ridge is off the charts. Could top 600 dm... in February!

Early cherry blossom season?! I was thinking mid-march. Wife is dying to see them. Will it be too late by then?

I was looking at iweather and clicked my location. Maybe it was way off. https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

That’s what I’m thinking. It always looks good 10-15+ days away. But I’m assuming persistence will win out. See you guys next year.

2.16” here in ashburn. temps hung around 36-39 the whole time. with a proper cold air in place and the same track, this would have been 20 inches. But despite the cold surface temps, this wasn’t even close. Even if the surface was below freezing, it would have been ice given the airmass. >32 isotherm all the way up to 700mb. So this was nowhere being close to a snowstorm without a 50/50 and a much, MUCH colder airmass.

36-37 rain

I don’t expect we will ever return to the 20” avg. After doing that trend graph I did a month or so ago, I think that’s the writing on the wall. We may hold a 10” median / 15” mean, but certainly not a return to 20” in either averaging method. Still expect some big winters ahead or at least some years with a HECS thrown in, though. Best case scenario is we get a heater that resembles a warmer version of the 1960s with blocking. Less snow overall, but maybe some juiced up storms that drop 24” that would otherwise have produced 12” in a colder climate.

70s and humid. what about after, though?

Not believing the NAM depiction of snow accums east of blue ridge. Artifact of low resolution… soundings above freezing up to 750-700mb

And I’m okay with that.

Just be sure not to pass gas while yelling, lest that negates your efforts.

Worst of both el nino and la nina. This may be why post-nina neutral winters are the worst for us in snowfall. As the nina decays, the atmosphere starts acting more like a nino out west but the SER stays.