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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Love it
  2. Terpeast
    Obviously an op run without ensemble support is less credible than one with support. But it is still very much one of the possibilities that we cannot rule out. If it holds back and amps too much, this will be a miss for us.
  3. Terpeast
    Let’s hope the ens are more correct and the op is wrong
  4. Terpeast
    Similar to 0z gefs
  5. Terpeast
    Yeah, that was just one of the many possibilities on the table. Something that could not be said all winter.
  6. Terpeast
    Gefs clearly east with the s/w kick at 144
  7. Terpeast
    Maybe noise, but gefs trended slightly east with the vort at 120
  8. Terpeast
    You know it's getting real when Wes pops in. Good to see you in here.
  9. Terpeast
    2 ft area wide. But the usual disclaimers keep expectations in check yada yada lol
  10. Terpeast
    Good set of runs so far tonight, curious as to what the euro will do but I’m going to bed now.
  11. Terpeast
    Wow, just saw that!
  12. Terpeast
    Wacky evolution for sure. Probably won’t play out as depicted but hopefully moving closer to the right solution for us
  13. Terpeast
    That march 7-8 cutter is going to play a crucial role both upstream and downstream.
  14. Terpeast
    On march 6? That’s to be expected, imo. That cutter should absorb into and reinforce the 50/50, while the w trough begins to kick east on the 10th. Gfs moved towards the euro/cmc today
  15. Terpeast
    Don’t know about you, but that doesn’t scream cutter to me.
  16. Terpeast
    That’s the least of my worries at this point
  17. Terpeast
    Yep, what usually happens with a pattern change going into our favor is a storm that cuts and draws cold air in, and the -nao and 50/50 locks it in long enough for a few attempts at a hit. Biggest failure risk imo is not suppression, it’s that the SER/W Trough tries to run the clock out on us.
  18. Terpeast
    It looks much better to me actually, esp after the 12th and onward. I would not be surprised to see a cutter on the 7-10 time frame that reinforces the 50/50 and pushes the boundary south
  19. Terpeast
    Yeah, looks like a big change to me too another thing i noticed is gfs stopped trying to link SER with -nao. Now more separation with lower heights in between
  20. Terpeast
    That big dip in gfs performance was around the perfect track rainstorm in mid feb, no?
  21. Terpeast
    FIFY
  22. Terpeast
    Yeah I don’t want a march 93. Sure I remember getting 10” before the change over, but the sleet/rain ruined that storm for me.
  23. Terpeast
    What’s the saying? The big ones get sniffed out early. Exact track TBD of course…
  24. Terpeast
    I’m on team “snow is snow no matter the month”.
  25. Terpeast
    Thermals are farther south than previous LR looks. Don’t know if it means much until the nao block establishes itself and the aleutian ridge breaks down a bit.
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