Terpeast

Outside of a fluke 1% chance, it’s over. I’ll do a post-mortem writeup in my winter outlook thread soon.

Brief shower and then it dried out. Had this been snow, it may only have amounted to a car topper.

Do you still have that graphic? And on what time period was it based? My question is whether the polar jet shifted north because of the string of ninas, or because of [something else that shall not be named]. Or both.

Light rain in ashburn, 0 mangled flakes. 39

Yeah, you’re on spot with the smaller storms. Anecdotally, I remember getting a lot of 2-4” and 4-8” snows when I was a kid, but those became fewer and farther between as the years passed by.

Well, I’m going in with the assumption that a) this is just not our year, and b) if NYC can get 30” in mid March, then we almost certainly can get it in Jan or Feb in a better year.

If NYC-CT got a 30+ inch storm like the ukie depicted, I wouldn’t be upset about that. I actually would be very excited because if they can get that, we can, too. We just need minor 100-200 mile adjustments in a global wave pattern that are more likely to come to fruition in a bona fide nino.

Dry. Upper 30s.

I’m surprised that he’d hype it up like this.

I'm not basing it on emotions. Yes, I'm frustrated just like anyone else on here, too. But I'm basing it on decadal trends, using the 30-year median and 10-year median. The recent 10-year median excludes the 09-10 winter, but not the 13-15 winters yet. So it's a little elevated. If I were to narrow that down to the last 5-7 years, we would see a huge fall off. These are IAD numbers. As much as I want and hope the trend to reverse itself, I can't see it happening with the [not to be named] background state, which I'm afraid is driving more nina-like patterns due to SST gradients in the pacific.

It’s now obvious to me why these waves aren’t going to work for us. These are predominantly NS systems moving ESE from W Canada through the great lakes towards the northern MA coast. What we really need is an active southern stream with lows moving from the south/GOM northeast along the SE coast off OBX/VA beach. The h5 setup that enables this would be more conducive to getting cold air down here to support snow. NS vorts that don’t dig enough won’t get the job done.

I see it in two ways, and both lead to the same conclusion. If we get a big winter in the next nino, then we know if it’s not a nino, it’s going to suck. If we get a nino, and the winter sucks anyway, the conclusion is the same. Life will be much easier and more fun if we look to the chase. Deep Creek, Vermont, Colorado/Utah, Tahoe. If we get a non-nino big winter again, then that’s when things get a little interesting.

The march 13 wave 2 appears to have trended slightly colder for the piedmont. Not by much, though. Still want to test the el nino to see if everything still falls apart in the medium range. Maybe next year.

The MA forum: March 2023 - “hurry up, let’s get that el nino going! March 2024 - “whoops, can we go back to la nina please?”

Yeah, the h5 low was to the north, but look how far south the jet streaks dug... well into the gulf, florida, and off GA. No wonder it was a juiced QPF bomb.

Looks like gfs puts me in the 1-1.5" stripe for wave 1. Looks tasty... (gosh, how my standards have fallen)

Normal 850s this time of year is around 0 for dca. 12z eps has us at -1 to -2 for wave 2, colder n/w gonna be close

That looks even closer to the coast than 12z eps

Not at this range, it’s fine where it is now

Look west. ridge starting to pop. Starting to initialize mjo at 8, hmm.

I know you’re joking, but I’m reserving judgement until I see the next 2 days of model runs.

Roll it back 6 or 12 hours? Want to see where it is relative to IAD/DCA

Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense?

Have we entered mjo phase 8 yet? I'm curious how models will adjust, if any, once we're well into 8 at high amplitude.

The nina is now dead. 3.4 is -0.2 atm. The cpc enso update is based on the average of the last 90 days, so they are behind. We’ll know by June or July where this nino is going, if it does develop.