Terpeast

Broken clock is right twice a day. Or at least we hope.

Pouring here in Ashburn. Not going to have to water the garden for another week.

80 and sunny. Thick cloud deck out west over the mountains.

Yep, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the pdo, which has just as important (if not more) effects on our winters as enso does. This kind of progress is what we want to see. Otoh, the pdo was as negative as it could possibly get so some rise was inevitable. We just need enough of a rise to break the -pdo/-pna that has plagued our winters since 2016.

It is, but it doesn’t mean that the mean forecast is more likely to be correct. Did these models predict that the trades would stay this strong all throughout May? Or did they underforecast those trades? @bluewave might know because he’s been tracking this closely.

IAD is -1.8 so far MTD. April was +4.2 though

At least this wasn’t a cold/wet gut punch of a spring after a record warm winter

Thinking they’re overly bullish. But if I mentally adjust those projections by -0.5, we’re still looking at a 1.5 nino3.4 with 1.0 nino1.2. I would like that to verify, tbh.

I was going to point out a pdo reversal after cpc’s monday enso report. But you summed it up. Selfishly, we want a positive pdo, but it could be disastrous for NW canada.

42

A moderate 1.3-1.6 nino would be good for the mid atlantic, much better than a strong/super. The pdo will have something to say about it though.

Nice work, @40/70 Benchmark I enjoy reading your posts. This was a tough one to forecast because it falls on the extreme end of the climate spectrum. Who would have guessed that JF would see +8 temps while California gets buried as record snows effectively erased their decades-long drought? Raindance did a good job, but even he didn’t forecast these extremes. Doug K down here in DCA only gave us 2-6” of snow in his outlook, and even he was too generous with that. Sure, the nina and +qbo, IOD, maritime forcing, etc. Were all unfavorable, but if you told me last October how this winter would transpire, I would have thought you were nuts.

Did BBQ on the new grill for Mother’s Day. Perfect day today. Low humidity with a gentle breeze. Can’t ask for better than this. This won’t last long before the humidity comes in.

Yeah, we’ll know better where this is going to go in another month or two. I think I saw somewhere that a WWB is coming later this month into early June, so we’ll see if that makes it over the dateline. That being said, I don’t think the stronger end of the forecasts are going to work out. I see it peaking at moderate or low end strong. 1.4 give or take

Good to see this, thanks. So it IS possible for the PDO to rise by 2 or 3 in a short time span (a year or less). 8% seems a low probability, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see the PDO get close to neutral. Based on our east coast snowstorm history, we don't really need a strong +PDO for it to happen. We just need to mute the unfavorable mid-latitude pac forcing to allow the enso to couple.

So do I. That’s why I’m hoping the -pdo will become less negative or closer to neutral.

Exactly. Because the pdo is so negative now, I think it will stay negative for a while. Just less so.

Best case is the pdo returns to neutral, which opens up some favorable possibilities for next winter. Don’t see it going positive so soon after record negative

I had us at near to slightly above normal with a torchy Feb, but less snowy overall. Still busted pretty badly, but there was never an expectation of even a near normal winter in terms of snowfall. Next year, on the other hand...

Remarkably consistent since 2016. At some point, that pattern has gotta break. Like 40/70 said, something's gotta give.

How would you adjust past analogs toward today's climate? Some options come to top of mind: - brute force of adjusting temps up by a couple degrees across the board (oversimplistic, but can be complicated by the fact that doing so would eliminate 32-33 degree snowstorms we had in the past, esp in the MA) - adjusting storm tracks northward. Example: 72-73 had that big storm and much above normal snowfall across the SE US, but virtually nothing from DC to NYC. What if a 72-73 happened today? Would that storm have traversed further north and resulted in a DC-NYC hit? - match every winter from 2000 to today with the best pre-1980 analog, and compare the forcing (location and intensity), and note the changes as a result of a warmer state?

Had you hid the years so I don’t see 72-73 or 97-98, I’d take those maps and run to the bank!

Pretty sure its because those maps don’t have the resolution to convey such limited areas like lake effect snow belts.

Hit 70 here too

I want to! But I’d prefer a solution that’s… uh… less messy.