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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    7.6 C/km is no slouch. Especially now that the cloud deck has already cleared
  2. Terpeast
    87/71, sunny with clouds thinning out and 5 minutes later: 88/72. Juicy
  3. Terpeast
    Sun is back out. 71 dewpoint. Game on!
  4. Terpeast
    Clouds starting to thin out a bit. Dews back up to 70
  5. Terpeast
    Dews momentarily dropped to 66, but faught back up to 68. North of M-D line got watched. Nothing yet down here, but should be soon. Something popping up SW of cumberland
  6. Terpeast
    Drier air starting to mix down. Dews down to 67 now
  7. Terpeast
    Thicker high clouds. 85/70
  8. Terpeast
    84 already, Some cirrus cover rolling in, but dews staying at around 70
  9. Terpeast
    Cirrus clouds are back. I understand why some are having doubts on today. Really tough situation for forecasters. If they portray this as just another summer day with a chance of tstorms and they overperform, they're going to get hell for underplaying it. OTOH they talk up the severe and it underperforms, they'll be seen as the boy who cried wolf... and lives might get lost the next time a severe event actually verifies.
  10. Terpeast
    To me, that means east based is off the table for now. Nino3.4 probably still has some warming to do and pull that forcing a smudge east over the dateline. Then we’ll be in good shape for winter if that pans out.
  11. Terpeast
    79/72 ashburn. Full sun. Dews have gone up. Setup seems good so far
  12. Terpeast
    Getting sunnier, dews in upper 60s. If we get gapped today, it won’t be because of early cloudiness
  13. Terpeast
    Basin wide
  14. Terpeast
    Steamy outside. Sharp contrast to the last few weeks
  15. Terpeast
    Some might dismiss or scoff at this, but I wouldn’t. I have an eye on the QBO possibly turning negative for the winter. The only fly in the ointment is high/rising solar, but I don’t know how much weight that holds.
  16. Terpeast
    0.61” from both yesterday and today so far. 1.25” on the month
  17. Terpeast
    Both things can be true. We can get 2 warm months and 1 cold month, average warm overall, and still get a productive winter.
  18. Terpeast
    Stready rain, almost 0.5”. 61
  19. Terpeast
    Good question - cpc doesn’t make that clear in their weekly enso reports. But I found this:
  20. Terpeast
    Concur with radar not matching ground truth. Prob extrapolated from other radar sites since lwx is down
  21. Terpeast
    Have you seen a recent sst map? and the forecasts? Orange and red everywhere, except for a few small blue spots. Frankly, it tells me everything I need to know about this issue.
  22. Terpeast
    But we will all do it anyway. Because… that’s how we roll!
  23. Terpeast
    Otoh, I have a working hypothesis that CC will lead to more la nina years and even when we’re in enso neutral or weak ninos, the atmosphere will act more like a nina because of zonal sst gradients between nino 3.4 and the WPAC warm pool keeping the mjo stuck in 4-6, and weakening meridional temp gradients around the equator affecting the hadley cell and pacific jet. Before this flip to nino, I was concerned that we’d find ourselves in a permanent and irreversible la nina because the mid latitude (and WPAC warm pool) ssts have been warming faster than the equatorial pacific.
  24. Terpeast
    Got a nice thundershower here.
  25. Terpeast
    Technically, we’re not in a strong nino yet. But valid question about whether the typical nino effects apply post 2016.
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