Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Yeah I have mixed feelings. As much as I want a big winter here to break the pattern, ninos are really hit and miss here. Basically half really deliver, and half give us nothing.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Terpeast replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I was never into today's chance. As soon as I saw a cell dissipate over WV/VA border earlier today, that confirmed it for me.- 2,785 replies
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96/67
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What about 1991-92? Although its pdo was neutral, it also had a negative qbo along with strong oni. Do you think we should include it?
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91-92: neutral PDO, strong nino, negative qbo, VERY strong AO (reached +2 at some points) I think the strong +AO killed that winter. Worth noting Pinatubo erupted June 1991. Maybe it has something to do with?
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Interesting how west of 95 has been much warmer than east towards the bay. Today will be the 10th day we hit 90+ out here, including 7 days in a row last week. Max 94. Might hit 95 today. Something to do with our local drought I think.
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It really is. My wife and I drove through there to Deep Creek and the thought of buying a vacation home crossed our minds. That’s way off though, as we just bought last year. Maybe when the kids are grown.
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My grass has gone dormant. At least I don't have to mow every week?
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And the sun just came out…
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I hardly got anything. I don’t think this is the year for ashburn/leesburg In fact I’m mentally done with gardening and watering it vs not watering it. I’ll just let it go and reseed next year.
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Got skipped. Mod rain with gusty winds. No real impact on dry ground. I’ll water the garden tomorrow.
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A few small cells appearing on my doorstep, will report back on how that evolves
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Interesting. Not long after I noted a possible gap in radar. I haven’t looked at spc meso, so there must be something that persuaded them to put up a watch soon
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Looks like a split between MD north and central VA south as per radar evolution…
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Most mesoscale models want to dry out radar sim east of blue ridge after 18z and reignite convection baltimore north
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Radar looking good out to the west. Better than models progged?
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thread the needle seems to be the theme, not just with individual coastal storms but with ssts. I’m keeping an eye on RONI/MEI as those take into account background ocean warming. These were never sufficiently positive after 2015-16, almost consistently negative which correlates well with the crap winters we’ve been getting. Cautiously optimistic we flip the script this year, but we need to get it strong enough to start with.
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Light shower. Enough to wet the surface, but not the soil. Will only increase humidity
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Darkening clouds over my house in ashburn. Let’s see if they do produce. Not holding my breath though edit: gusty winds. So maybe
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Finally had a cell jackpot over me. Dropped a nice payload of pouring rain for 20 minutes. All I had to do was water my garden a couple hours beforehand.
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Yeah that’s what we want, but hoping it does not continue trending weaker. Otherwise nino effects will get washed out with background warming
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Whiffed once again. Just a few drops. Let's see what Sunday brings.
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Interesting this graph shows most ninos pause or slow development late spring into summer, then pick up a second wind in the fall into winter.
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0.6” last night. Every little bit helps
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Efficient rain rates. Getting hosed down. Finally. Not gonna have to water my yard for the next few days. Lots of lightning too
