Terpeast

You were right. IAD went higher despite early cloud cover because of the local drought

Gray wall of rain less than a mile away. So tantalizingly close

big anvil cloud passing just to my north. Still sunny here. Probably another miss EDIT: just stepped outside and looked directly upwind. All clear skies.

High of 98 so far, sitting at 97/74. HI 108. If I wanted to use a sauna right now, I could just sit outside.

Skies starting to clear out. Temps to make one last push toward upper 90s soon

I think at this point it’s safe to throw out the BoM model altogether for this year.

Nearest station maxed at 95.5. Now sitting at 93/73.

Up to 91 so far here. Still mostly cloudy.

It’s 84 at IAD at 10 am, yesterday was 81 at the same time. Unless it clears up fast, we’re on pace to only hit 95. Thinking 96-97 is a realistic forecast.

Lots of cloudiness that may affect high temps and tstorm chances. I fully expect to get little or no rain, so my only question is whether 98 is too bullish

Gotcha, thanks. I’m exploring various enso-related indices and like you said, it is a lot of work. With my day job not related to met and raising a kid, I might just go with the MEI for my research/2024 winter outlook and call it a day.

Got just 0.1” yesterday. I expect actual highs to overperform forecasts as has been the trend all July. May even hit 100 while wetter locations top out at 98 this week.

Why do you think the cold subsurface correlates so well with a -PNA? There’s no forcing mechanism originating from 100-200m under water. Maybe it is because of stronger trades (in spite of +enso) creating upwelling in the central pacific, raising the thermocline locally, and this wind field is what actually correlates (or maybe contributes) to -pna? Curious to hear your thoughts.

I can confirm. Lawn makes it look like I live in Arizona, not Virginia. Few trees here and there are yellowing/browning prematurely. Too soon.

It also raises the question of whether wwbs actually drive nino development, or is actually the other way around. Maybe both. But this year it might be that the warm water in the east eventually migrates west, and only then the trades weaken and/or wwbs occur.

Yeah, I've been consistently hitting 90+ most of July here. The last couple of days were the only negative departures of the month. With the incoming heat, July looks to finish at a 91 average high

I’m not sure this really tells us much except that the planet has a whole has been warming regardess of enso state. I’m not a fan of comparisons using X years “minus” Y years, especially if all the X years are recent and the Y years are pre CC, except when you’re trying to show that CC has happened and by how much. EDIT: Please know that I’m not trying to put your work down, you do great analyses and your research is top notch. It’s just that my own research also shows a 4 F increase in my area over the last 50-60 years without taking into account enso state.

Its one of them, yeah. Other analogs I like include 72-73 and 91-92. But we have to adjust these analogs to a new climate base state. I will do so for my next winter outlook, and show how I did it.

What is the JMA predicting as the peak and when?

Heat advisories probably

If the stratosphere retains more vapor than usual, I’d expect it to have a warming effect given that its a potent greenhouse gas. A warmer polar stratosphere may result in a more persistent -ao/-nao, but if strat vapor content is evenly distributed across all latitudes and both hemispheres, then it may not matter as the whole world warms even more.

Speaking for the MA forum, that’s what we want (west lean forcing). We haven’t had a good track record with east based

Nearest station recorded only 4.13” since May 1 in my location (ashburn). Jan-mar was 9.77”. Big hole to dig out of. Yeah.

I’m behind that line and the dews are in low-mid 60s. But it’s not bad at all. It’s not like last week when I start sweating as soon as I step out the door

0.6” here. Nice!