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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    It was just to the east of me (the hail) At least I got good rainers on consecutive days.
  2. Terpeast
    Long duration heavy rain but no wind. Lightened up. Radar looks interesting. Can that western cell merge with the E LoCo train?
  3. Terpeast
    Round 2. Lets see if it amounts to anything more
  4. Terpeast
    Garden variety downpour. Not much wind unlike yesterday. But a healthy rainer.
  5. Terpeast
    Went out for a walk to clear my head. The humidity is thick. Can also feel surface convective heating as I walked. 84/72
  6. Terpeast
    Oops, I might’ve sounded like snowman19 for a second…
  7. Terpeast
    True. How was 2018-19 for SNE? It was a slightly above average winter for my area, so if we got a repeat of that, I’d be slightly disappointed that we didn’t get another 02-03 or 09-10, but I wouldn’t be complaining at all.
  8. Terpeast
    So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run. There’s also a chance that the CFS is overcorrecting, though
  9. Terpeast
    0.7” today
  10. Terpeast
    The droughters finally cashed in!
  11. Terpeast
    Round 2 now
  12. Terpeast
    Same zipcode, didn’t see any. Think the hail was just off to my east
  13. Terpeast
    Huge downpour, was so loud that my zoom meeting commented on it
  14. Terpeast
    Looks good for a target of 1.0 give or take by Dec. Have no expectation of anything higher than 1.5
  15. Terpeast
    Wow, it’s official!
  16. Terpeast
    If legit, that is amazing. Never happened in Sept at this location.
  17. Terpeast
    Some clouds passed through, may prevent IAD from getting to 100. EDIT: Yeah, seems to have fallen back to 97-98. So no dice
  18. Terpeast
    99 imby. Legit heat
  19. Terpeast
    Here’s how it looks now imby
  20. Terpeast
    I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.
  21. Terpeast
    97 imby, dews at 69
  22. Terpeast
    Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot! (selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)
  23. Terpeast
    Tracking a bit behind yesterday, so not sure if we hit 100 today. Still a couple hours of heating left to go and skies are clearer, though
  24. Terpeast
    Because ssts in the WPAC and mid latitudes are warming faster than the tropics, El Nino influence is muted. It would need to get stronger to exert the same influence as weaker ones did in the past. The opposite is true for La Ninas.
  25. Terpeast
    Hence the warning
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