Terpeast

Yeah, but only for a week or so. Gfs and canadian ensembles bring an aluetian trough back after the first week of Oct. As I’ve been saying for weeks, there will be some back and forth.

I’m not worried yet. The monthlies were not showing an el nino pattern until dec/jan. On a weekly basis there will be some switching back and forth now until then. If it makes you feel better, gfs and canadian ensembles start showing an aluetian low at the end of their runs (starting around oct 10th)

I'm at 7.7" for the monthly total. I'm at the midpoint (slightly west thereof) between the 9.19 and 5.86, so it makes sense.

No radar signal but still drizzly. 3.20"

3.08” so far and looks to be winding down here. 7.5” on the month. Huge turnaround on the drought!

Passed 2” with the last band

1.4” so far, on track to reach or exceed 2” as forecasted by the models. Wind was underwhelming though. Max gust 30

0.93” from the first round, drizzly during the lull.

Yes, ridiculous. But ensembles show several fronts starting to come through Japan with slight troughing through the end of the range. Note the dark blue blob of cold ssts in the Okhotsk sea. As the season gets colder, those colder temps will migrate down and help dissipate some of that heat. It’ll take time though, but I think it can be done before our winter.

0.47” so far.

Just started raining

Think it means the westward tracks modeled may turn out to be correct, maybe it means rain west of i-95 going higher end of forecast

Getting the same warm Dec vibe. Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO

Just might become a low end cat 1 right before landfall

Better get a bad pattern out of the way now. Most models had this in their forecasts and don’t pop an aleutian low until Jan.

And it's not just Dec 2022... it's also the entire winter of 2022-23 with the trough digging all the way into Baja and burying SoCal with several feet of snow. I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say that extreme type of pattern won't happen again for at least a decade or more.

NHC track further west. Up the bay

Anyone notice that canadian and NHC have tracks further east than gfs, euro, icon and nam?

That’s actually a pretty reasonable outlook. My ONI vs MEI analysis a few pages back supports this somewhat. I also think the MEI peaks in the low 1’s while ONI peaks at 1.7-1.8 in the next couple of months

I was out of the country at the time, but wow did he really say that? To bash the euro on air is making a statement… and a correct one at that, it looks like.

I might go with a strategy to adjust colder analogs warmer by grouping all potential matches together, and then creating a second group that leaves out the older/colder cohort. I did this a few pages back for MEI lower than ONI by 0.5, and the forcing and precipitation patterns still turned out to be similar, except for temperature and the polar domain. That way we can tease out what other contributing variables drive the ao/nao and temps. Don’t know if this will work in a seasonal forecast, but I’ll test this strategy this year.

May have been something else that caused it to be blocky. I’m not sold on the IOD effect on the polar domain, I tried to find the correlations and they just aren’t there, even with lag. Also the 60s were cold. Probably the coldest decade in the last century to date.

It did last year, when Euro predicted a MA snowstorm while the rest of the models showed a cutter. Then the euro caved inside 5-6 days. We believed the euro because it was a good model. Now we know better.

Same, I’m at 1.7-1.8

Much better agreement… on a much needed soaker