Terpeast

At least it got the west of 180 forcing right. Maybe that’s something to take into account for winter

For now yes. But these VP anoms seem to change every week. This may look totally different this time next week.

With all the model volatility, maybe the “lets wait till its within 10 days” should be revised down to 6-7 days… even with the ensembles

BWI: Nov 3 IAD: Nov 1 DCA: Nov 29 RIC: Nov 21 BWI departure +1.0

The nice visual aside, I imagine the warmer gulf and carribbean (over 30c right now) might get the SS to amplify more and shift the storm track a bit north, so what used to be a deep southern slider and a MA miss may become a MA hit. Also what used to be a MA hit SNE miss may hit SNE instead. Could be wrong, so we’ll see.

How far do you go back usually? 1950?

Yeah, I don’t get it either. I don’t understand the “super” talk when we’re at high-end moderate and holding (or weak, if you prefer using MEI)

Thanks bluewave!

What's the link again for the daily enso data? I keep forgetting

Worth considering whether the super warm north atlantic might be driving a predominant -nao. It does make sense when I think about how much heat is transported north between greenland and scandinavia

Low of 52 imby. Think some low level stratus prevented me from radiating as well as I should

Let’s see if this holds inside 5-10 days, and if it does, that’s good news we’d be able to hold a +pna despite record -pdo

If the MEI remains in the weak range, probably neither. The polar tele’s might have a bigger say.

I see the back and forth, too.

My glimmer of hope is that slight ridging off Japan, so working through those warm sst anomalies over the next few months, including December, won't necessarily ruin our chances for sustained +PNA and blocking the second half of winter. We still have time.

Yeah, I expect that area to cool even further as fall rolls into Japan and further south. Not a big reason to worry yet, true, but I keep thinking about how to get an aleutian low in the right place within 4 months using this sst map as a starting point. My hypothesis is that the autumn will be dominated by enhanced cyclones running along the baroclinic boundary as it slowly surely shifts south... that's going to pop a ridge on the central NPAC with -PNA at least temporarily. Then we just need it to normalize and shift into a canonical aleutian trough and +PNA. Can we pull this off inside of 4 months with this as a starting point?

Yea I was talking about that. Sure, we could get a dead cat bounce off this, and we likely will, but if we're peaking this early, that's something to take into account when picking analogs (or adjusting them).

After everything had been going as planned for several months (apart from the japan marine heat wave), that 0.2 drop in 3.4 is a red flag. Too early to say what it means going forward, but it’s not a promising sign

Today’s high was 59.4 imby. Probably one of the coldest maxes in September that I can remember.

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby? No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

Ok so if we put +enso -qbo +iod together, signs clearly point to a wetter than normal winter for the SE to MA

What about precip? I think we’re looking for the wrong linkages with qbo. Not so much temperature, but where blocking tends to occur and where the driest and wettest anomalies tend to be. This map looks like a drier NW and wetter SE and that’s what I first thought before I saw it was about temps

Gosh Tip, that was poetic

Yep. That’s what I’ve been trying to say the past few times I posted here.

True, but the Euro isn’t exactly the winning model these days. It totally whiffed on Ophelia and caved dramatically to GFS/CMC inside 3 days. Not saying all other models are much better in the longer range though. All I’m saying is that we’ve had alternating +/- PNA periods over the last 3 months and I see that continuing through the entire autumn season until at least late December.