Terpeast
-
Posts
5,326 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
Deck starting to get dusted
-
Light snow/sleet
-
Its way out in fantasy range, but definitely plausible that there will be a storm around that window. The pattern, as depicted, supports it. But don’t get too excited about specific amounts
-
33/23 ashburn, cloudy
-
3-5” then mix
-
Op gfs setting up the block day 4-5 and builds the western ridge at day 9, things might start to get interesting after that.
-
They don’t always do this, but I think they did it this time for other reasons we’re probably not interested in.
-
Yep, that was the first clue of this going off the rails. I would take these data assimilation exercises seriously.
-
Yeah given the trends by all models today, I think this goose is cooked. We might get lucky with a last minute north shift, but 2-4” is probably optimistic. I want to say the gfs is trying to set something up after 156 hr tho
-
Ha, 2nd wave brings rain up north of NYC
-
First wave trended flatter, second stronger
-
Yeah, nope.
-
Second wave approaching. Can we hold the thermals?
-
Energy at h5 just isn’t digging enough. Maybe the wave after will look different.
-
Ding ding…
-
Just reading the above posts now. In case my posts (where I try to be encouraging) rubs people NW/NE of Balt the wrong way, I apologize. I hadn't realized how bad things were up there and the fact that you guys haven't had a warning event in 8 years. I wasn't around between 2017 and 2022 so I didn't follow closely, and I didn't know. I hope you get yours sooner than later, and I know you will eventually. Bad luck doesn't run forever.
-
Now this is a case that might work against a short term north trend, because as the block gets established, it'll flex and press everything south. It's still not a great hit for mby, but it's getting close. 50-70 miles isn't much at this lead time.
-
That’s fair. We’ll see how much moisture comes out of the gulf for the tuesday wave. I’m willing to bet it will be a little more than the models are currently showing.
-
I like it where it is, tbh. We don’t have a block established yet, and when it isn’t there or is just starting, storms almost always come north at the last minute! (Before anyone comes at me with their backyard anecdotes, i’ll say its a different story once the block does establish itself as it did for the Jan 6 storm for example)
-
I’m totally fine with the south shift as long as the Tue wave maintains enough strength to give us decent qpf. The danger now is that it weakens so much that it becomes a non event, or an advisory for RIC, then the storm after pushes thermals north of us. It’s still unlikely, but not impossible.
-
Just by looking at the SLP maps, I think models are converging into better agreement on the track. Which is out of the rockies west right through TN and then off the coast of Southern VA. It's the QPF/ptype maps that still aren't in agreement. Only until we get into the mesos, will we see better agreement on lifting, thermals, and QPF.
-
Had the models not spit out 20" runs a few days ago and instead showed an ice/rain/mix... and then started showing 6" runs today, we'd be ecstatic right now. But we're more like, meh I'll accept it as a consolation prize. This board is wild (and I mean that in a good way).
-
Playing follow the leader. And given how much it shifted south (2 days after euro bumped north), I think it will correct back up north a bit stepwise.
-
I’d say we’re in a good spot being on the north side of the heaviest precip if we want an all snow event. It’s noteworthy since this run assimilated dropsonde data from the pacific, so it might be the first clue that the most amped and northern solutions (where we mix) might be wrong. It’s just one run, but I like where we’re at.
-
Bit south, bit slower. Still early
