Terpeast

Lol, we just can't win on xmas eve. Anyway, weeklies are looking good for late nov into early dec. We may follow the pattern of mod-strong ninos with a cold Dec. Let's see what H5 cansips says. What’s funny about xmas is that last year’s was really cold, and we all knew how the rest of the winter turned out. So…

That’s because it is. 3 HECS in one year, where most good winters have only one. H5 pattern cannot get any better than that winter. Pure textbook. And if it weren’t a decent analog this year, nobody would be obsessing about it now.

MEI for 19-20 never got above 0.4 and was down to 0.2 by Jan

33

Yup I saw, it’s a good sign. Before the CFS I thought I was being too bullish in my outlook, but not now. Waiting for 500mb cansips before I release.

Thanks. Kinda hard to understand those maps without the scales

We’re just coming off an 80 degree week. If anything this fall has been above normal so far. I think we will have plenty of opportunities

Isnt the cansips supposed to be out by now?

Was stuck at 52 all day for the high, and now dropped down to 43. Finally radiating well as my area should edit: falling like a rock now. 39

Nice. That will help the PDO

Yeah, the PDO took a step back into the negative range, but I think it's only temporary. After a warming trend, the Okhotsk Sea is cooling again (circled below): And a broad N Pac trough with a healthy aleutian low is on the way (and it's no longer October): Still out in the fantasy range after the back and forth battle between Aleutian troughing and ridging, but we may see the troughing reinforced by a new trough moving off NE Asia into the pac. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. PDO is likely to bounce in the -1.3 to -0.3 range before stagnating towards neutral as the nino takes hold.

Right, if I remember correctly 18-19 wasn’t that warm up here. So its bit of a mixed signal and kind of a wash. If I adjusted 63-64 a few degrees warmer, though, it’s a weak mild signal here.

Strong +IOD shows a signal for an east-displaced GOA trough for all years regardless of ENSO, and a stronger east-based aleutian low for nino years. Cold anomalies would be tilted to the SW than SE. But for the record, I don't think the IOD is a big factor this year. Many of these seasons in both composites are El Ninos much stronger than this one, and I don't think we can separate out the IOD signal from strong ninos.

So you can see how rare this is. I haven't gone back further than the 1950s, but 1986-87 and 2006-07 are also on my analog short list.

Low of 40.5

Yeah, maybe it was different in PA. DCA had 32” and IAD 53” in 13-14

Down to 41

Surprised the 1950s had plenty of -NAO and yet the winters were awful. As if it were the flip side of 2013-14 and 14-15

What I've found doesn't really support this. If anything, there's a weak persistence signal into Dec, meaning if we have a -NAO in Oct, we are just a little more likely to also have a -NAO in Dec as well. But after that, it's mostly noise. Really 50/50 by Feb.

Got tied up at work and then going to my kids halloween activity. Outlook gonna have to wait a bit. Sorry, didn’t intend to leave you guys hanging like TV mets do all the time…

Made it to 78 before fropa. 69 now

Mantra of the forum! I’ll look over it tomorrow with fresh eyes then post

Fell short of 70 today. 69 for the high

Spent the whole day writing the meat of my outlook. Made a preliminary forecast, too. Might just go ahead and post it soon without waiting for new data. Let the chips fall where they may

I'm not sure it matters much anymore. If there's a playbook that needs to be thrown out with CC, I think this would be in it. Of course I could be wrong. For tripole related stuff, I would listen to what Chuck has to say. He has this special method that served him well, and he's predicting the NAO to average neutral this winter.