Terpeast

Not really. If anything a +NAO November correlates with a +NAO December, then the link breaks down after that.

Too soon to call it a “winter” pattern in mid November. Besides, this pattern is forecast to last about a week. Let’s see what happens in early Jan. It’s actually pretty common to have mild patterns in late fall early winter before Jan-Mar turns productive for the mid-atlantic especially during ninos, so it’s not an early indication of much.

I have mby at 76 for thursday, so we’ll see if that gets beat. Probably will. Then we likely won’t get out of the 50s for several days after the warm Thursday

Hit 70 yesterday on the dot. But today only 63. I was supposed to get up to 64-65, but the high underperformed slightly for once.

Yeah, I think this nino has already peaked, or is close to peaking. And right now it's a back and forth battle between +/- PNA. We've had an aleutian low and a +PNA-like pattern recently. Soon it'll be the other side's turn, and that mid month -PNA will last about a week, then after that who knows. Weeklies say it flips back to +PNA. I think this back and forth is going to last through the end of the year, and when January comes around, we'll see some El Nino influence kicking in then.

Wrong year label aside, Doug is even more bullish than I am… And he was right about last year.

Gotcha

Last January's PDO was -1.25, not +0..23 not sure where you're getting that value from. Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

i think it’s transitory and not a big deal, on this run the -pna lasts for about a week or so. But its also one model run

Reasonable, and lines up with my outlook (which has the cold leaning a bit more SW) My only nitpick is him using the 1991-2020 climo on 1960-1990 winters. I would have used 1951-2010, but that’s just me.

Interesting, this is actually a nino pattern with active mjo 1

The way I read it is when forcing is centered on a location, it doesn’t mean that there will be mjo activity in that location wall to wall. More like it triggers an mjo wave at phase 6, then it propagates eastward through 7, 8, and 1. Unlike last year, the waters there are plenty warm enough so any mjo wave that propagates should stay strong instead of it hitting a wall

If I remember correctly, last month’s euro run had the lowest h5 anomalies over the south/SW, now this time it’s over the SE?

I’m less interested in the ONI number and when it peaks (hint- it’s not going to 2.0), but more interested in the MEI which is supposed to be updated today. This is what I based my outlook on.

Yesterday it was a -pna forecast through and through, and today half and half. The models are so volatile because of the ENSO/PDO battle that they really have no idea who’s going to win in the near term. Their guesses are as good as ours. Think this is what Chuck was alluding to - unusually volatile model forecasts.

Low of 30

Again, I think you and I have a different definition of what a PDO is. When I take a broader view of it instead of just NW of Hawaii (waters off the west coast US are also important), I have a slightly different mix of analogs that leads me to think that the SW and south will be cooler and wetter than normal, and the NE will be warmer than on your map. But for MBY, your map is consistent with my prediction of a slightly AN winter temp wise (1-2+ F above). I also have great lakes warmer than normal. So we have “some” overlap there.

Yeah, ideally I want my blend to match everything but this year it was difficult to find a good blend for it. That’s why I wanted to temper expectations that a year like 09-10 isn’t necessarily a great match despite it having commonalities within the factors I looked at. Sensible weather analogs is another good way to do it, but I’m not well versed in that method like you are. I have a lot to learn in that area.

Problem with a +pdo is if it is too extreme, the aleutian low would be too close to the coast preventing cold air from spilling down into the conus. Our best winters have happened when the pdo is closer to neutral, iow not too extreme in either direction

2nd image - thats a lot of snowpack! Cold air wont be an issue in jan-feb if that pans out

Think a lot of people will be more excited when they compare cansips with last year’s h5 pattern

He’s trolling ofc

I like how January looks…

Cosign, this is what I think, too.

26, colder than yesterday