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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Agreed. Recent sst trends are a sign that the atmosphere driving them is shifting to a more nino-like pattern (I know some will disagree)
  2. Terpeast
    Good things I'm seeing is the cooling trend N of Hawaii + warming GOA and off W coast. Also cooling west of the dateline that might help shift forcing slightly to the east. Also an interesting Atlantic tripole-ish trend. It's a much better look than it was a month ago. Also some warming off Japan isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Because if we want an Aleutian low, we want upstream ridging over Japan and thereabouts. We just don’t want an extreme marine heatwave mucking up the entire pac.
  3. Terpeast
    Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference.
  4. Terpeast
    Mid-late november climo
  5. Terpeast
    I hear what you’re saying, but I think our average already has gone down and is going down and there’s no going back. I still put high chances of a decent winter, with lower chances of either a ratter or a blockbuster. I still lean towards it being a good winter because we have a nino that isn’t too strong and this is the best chance for a KU hit we’ve had in years. Chances are, that big hit if its going to happen is late Jan through Feb.
  6. Terpeast
    Yeah, an early inch really shouldn’t be too much to ask for near the md line away from the cities at relative elevation, even in a backloaded season.
  7. Terpeast
    Mmm okay. That radar looked good for an inch or so, but maybe a tad too warm or they got skipped
  8. Terpeast
    26.6 low, frosty
  9. Terpeast
    I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?
  10. Terpeast
    CMC also supports this. Still need the euro to get on board, but this is a much needed rain if it verifies
  11. Terpeast
    Some of these are reasons to temper our expectations, but an east based nino isn’t one of them. Based on -VP forcing plots, this nino is anything but east based. Forcing is very west-leaning
  12. Terpeast
    Did not make it to 50 today despite sunshine. 49.8 for the high
  13. Terpeast
    Great work @40/70 Benchmark I enjoyed the read, and thanks for putting so much effort into it. Your dad must have been a great man.
  14. Terpeast
    58 for the high, right on forecast
  15. Terpeast
    Moderate to strong. Not super.
  16. Terpeast
    BWI: 25.9” DCA: 17.2” IAD: 27.8” RIC: 13.0” Tiebreaker SBY: 14.5”
  17. Terpeast
    31 for the low, now 33. Very frosty
  18. Terpeast
    Uh oh, JB is gonna be all over this… https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/travel/worlds-newest-island-forms-in-japanese-archipelago-scn/index.html
  19. Terpeast
    I think we’re going to see crazy swings like this this winter, given all the mixed signals we’re seeing now
  20. Terpeast
    Its a pretty +pdo look
  21. Terpeast
    43, rain Nice to see precip/radar overperforming vs models
  22. Terpeast
    Yeah.. I don’t really follow 850mb wind anoms in the tropics because all the models show something completely different even for the same runs. What gets posted here is often different from what I see on the model sites. So I gave up on following this
  23. Terpeast
    Light rain, 46
  24. Terpeast
    The pacific is much better now than it was a couple months ago. It’s not ideally where we want it to be yet, obviously. But it’s slowly been getting better. If it backtracks in Dec-Jan though, this winter is going to be an uphill battle For now, we’re still in the game.
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, we don't want to gamble with that over just perturbing the PV. There's little support for a SSW event though, only 4 ensemble members show it
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