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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    54. Haven’t exceeded the midnight high so far
  2. Terpeast
    Lets hope for the GEM solution for Central-SW Virginia’s sake. Euro would be decent too
  3. Terpeast
    To counterbalance with the other side of this, I find that analog winters with an Aleutian low often have upstream ridging over Japan and just off their coast. I thought to myself that it’s not a bad thing to have if we want cold and snow in the east, as long we have a downstream trough off the aleutians.
  4. Terpeast
    We're already in mid-winter form. Canceling winter before it even starts. In a -PDO/+ENSO battle like this season, there's going to be a lot more of this. At least it won't be boring like last winter. Just look at the models... STJ is becoming more and more active.
  5. Terpeast
    So I can book a family trip out west next winter without fear of missing a HECS
  6. Terpeast
    If anything, the recent spike (was it really a spike, or some aberration with data?) will help shift us to an El Nino base state. Anything to wipe out the residual nina effects - and I think that will happen.
  7. Terpeast
    Actually, I’m thinking the peak was Oct-Nov. Either SON or OND on the trimonthlies. ^ @GaWx beat me to it.
  8. Terpeast
    I’m calling it. This nino has already peaked. It’s time to start tracking h5 and individual waves!
  9. Terpeast
    Haven’t noticed any smoke here. Bottomed out at 32, but already up to 54 now
  10. Terpeast
    Anyone have a clue why OISST hasn’t updated on cyclonicwx?
  11. Terpeast
    That EPO spire is really going to give a -PDO a kick in the rear
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah I get that, but you kinda walked into it
  13. Terpeast
    Yep, and lets get psuhoffman on the board so we can have a blockbuster this year
  14. Terpeast
    I hope you're right @psuhoffman! You're a bit more bullish than I am, tbh. I hedged a bit downward because I think we'll see some SW troughing episodes (pac base state) that'll "steal" a couple of our chances. Also, one thing I did differently was to include 57-58 and 65-66 (as well as 76-77) but by warming them up a few degrees and thus reducing their snowfall totals, and that dragged down my overall snowfall prediction for the area. But I understand your trepidation and I have the same thing, especially after the recent MEI value came in way low. Agreed that it's good we're not going super nino, though.
  15. Terpeast
    I asked him that yesterday and he said it was too warm to amount more than maybe a trace
  16. Terpeast
    Following is +0.5 IOD on a 4 month lag before DJF for all years since 1960 regardless of ENSO. Same, but only for El Nino winters (only eliminated a couple of enso neutral years): BTW, this uses the DMI index. Not sure if that makes a difference.
  17. Terpeast
    Got access? Or still experimental?
  18. Terpeast
    Yeah if that new wwb holds east of the dateline we MAY get to 1.7 trimonthly
  19. Terpeast
    When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors.
  20. Terpeast
    Note most of those years listed above are el nino years. And this year we also have a neg QBO. So as hard as it's been to have a sustained -NAO winter, maybe this is the year we finally get one.
  21. Terpeast
    I noticed that blocking signal, too and addressed it in my outlook. I don’t know why we get a stronger signal on the atlantic side as a result of that -pdo/+enso pac combination, but it is there. And combine that with a -qbo.
  22. Terpeast
    To add, here’s @griteater’s excellent -pdo/+enso analysis. You’ll like this.
  23. Terpeast
    I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this.
  24. Terpeast
    High of 55 today
  25. Terpeast
    Yeah, we just need to give psuhoffman an inch to get him to put down the logbook.
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