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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    SON should come in at 1.7 next week. If 3 and 3.4 stay up, OND should come in at 1.9 and that’ll likely be the trimonthly peak.
  2. Terpeast
    The east based or dual forcing scenario isn’t a convincing one to me, yet. We still have a huge pool of >30c ssts east of the dateline. Cherry picking model runs aside, I think the mean forcing throughout the winter will be on/near the pool with the warmest ssts (and where the largest sst anomalies are).
  3. Terpeast
    My neck hurts… from the Webb whiplash
  4. Terpeast
    Happy thanksgiving ladies and gents!
  5. Terpeast
    Yeah, and I think today's model runs are responding to this change.
  6. Terpeast
    Ensembles still show an active STJ, even if its not directly over our house. Op runs will flip flop in the med-long range, one will show dry another will show wet. That’s all we can take from now
  7. Terpeast
    My bar is 3 trimonthlies above 2.0 for a super. Even if we got to that point, I don’t think the atmospheric response will reflect a super. More like high end moderate to strong.
  8. Terpeast
    76-77 was cold, but it was also dry
  9. Terpeast
    The recent WWB plus this: Only bolsters my confidence that the nino will overpower the -PDO, and we’ll see it mostly uncoupled even if it stays negative.
  10. Terpeast
    2.36” final total
  11. Terpeast
    That line pushed me over 2" 2.14" with some leftovers to come
  12. Terpeast
    And don't forget the big MJO 8-1-2 event back in the spring that kicked off the first WWB. I think some are holding onto a certain bias that ignores recent 8-1-2 incursions.
  13. Terpeast
    Torrential now
  14. Terpeast
    Not quite, but maybe it should have. PDO was positive that winter, but came after a triple nina -PDO just like this year. QBO was positive though. Solar max, too (we’re close to it now).
  15. Terpeast
    I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec.
  16. Terpeast
    1.2”
  17. Terpeast
    Yeah we’re losing the marginal events no question about that.
  18. Terpeast
    Yeah, 10 days before meteorological winter.
  19. Terpeast
    I know we're all rooting for PSU to get his first inch by December, but I think in an El Nino year with 65-66 being one of the top analogs, we have a bit more leeway. The first inch didn't happen until January in both IAD and BWI. So this may be an exception to the rule. Stay off the ledge until at least January 15. And then do whatever you want after that date if we don't see any snow by then... but do so at your risk! If you get hurt or worse, don't sue me.
  20. Terpeast
    Great sign if centered east of the dateline. That should be the driver instead of the MC forcing we've seen in the past several years.
  21. Terpeast
    At least the STJ is there.
  22. Terpeast
    0.8" now, heavier rain
  23. Terpeast
    Although we may see a milder spell first half of december, the STJ is there. Nino is starting to flex.
  24. Terpeast
    0.4” so far, mod rain
  25. Terpeast
    Or they could juice snowfall totals if just cold enough.
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