Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Raindance’s official December forecast: +9 to +12 everywhere east of the Mississippi river. Let’s run a verification check on New Year’s day. If he’s right, we eat our shoe. If he’s wrong, let’s fund his remedial mathematics class.
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I have to agree with @stadiumwave after looking at the individual years and the blend of 3 years. the smoothing looks like there’s something there, but in this case, no. That’s why we have to be careful about combining years into a composite map, especially if there are so few years in the blend. It’s fine if they all show spatial similarities, but if they’re so different that they don’t individually match the blend, we’d have to toss the blend due to small sample size. PS. This advice goes for me, too. I’ve been known to blend liberally on small sample sizes…
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Was off for DCA by one day. But missed RIC by a large margin
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Sounds like most MD folks cashed in with at least a trace today
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Yeah this is one to watch. Just need a little separation between the lead vort and this wave. Ops still all over the place on H5 though.
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Btw did anyone see flurries in central MD or near the blue ridge in VA? I saw clouds with heavy virga that appeared to reach the ground to the N and W of me (Ashburn)
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28. Windy. Frigid!
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Only made it to 38 here so far, and I’m 10 miles from IAD. I think IAD has been outperforming most of the area for high temps by 3-5 degrees most of the year.
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Let me ask you this. are you saying that the ocean-atmosphere being uncoupled causes the El Nino to become stronger? This is where you lost me when I’m trying to follow your reasoning.
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All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes
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High 47 today, down to 35. With that wind, it’s cold!
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And snowplows parked down the road from me, partially blocking my way out.
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No precip here. Fell to 31, but rebounded to 45. Windy
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Yeah we may have to wait, we do have some wiggle room in an el nino year, but it would be really nice to get on the board in Dec than waiting until mid Jan
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Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years.
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Normally I love Don’s posts, but I’m not sold on 1991 as a top analog. 1972, sure. But in 1991 there was no blocking wall to wall (except for a few days), and it looks like we’ll get plenty of blocking this winter.
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Remember last year we were seeing tons of snow on the controls, only for that to disappear towards D0. We may not see any snow on the controls this year, but we’ll see if something sneaks up on us inside D3-4
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Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself.
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Down to 28 for the low. 32 now
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That’s consistent with MJO 3-4 in the RMM forecast. You say RMM isn’t much use, but I see it in good agreement with the VP forecast. Also worth noting that the max -VP anomaly is further north into the bay of bengal rather than within 5s-5n of the equator. I don’t think the 30c pool in the wpac will have as much influence as nino 4, which will start to dominate. We see that in the RMM chart because it kills the MJO wave before it goes into the 4-6 areas. That’s a nino pattern.
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Will be interesting to see what the next MEI value is. Maybe we’ll finally put the “background nina” concerns to rest.
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We shouldn’t even be looking at op solutions past day 6. If you must, look at the run to run trends going back 4-5 runs. Then you’ll see why.
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Also 25.9 for the low
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Nice work, we’re on the same page. My outlook is pretty similar.
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I skimmed through. I think he’s splitting hairs. Would have to read it again with fresh eyes though
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