Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Any trend in timing?
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47, cloudy.
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Yep. Not now. But around then. We can see the STJ start loading its ammo and taking aim at the SE US on recent runs, especially 12z gfs.
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Winter 2023-2024
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks even better -
Judging from the gradients near the dateline, forcing should strengthen around the dateline and then drift a bit east after Dec 17 or so
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Consider the source. Smart guy, but heavily biased towards persistence in favor of CC. He will be proven wrong for a time eventually. He has a tendency to cherry pick the warmest analogs for any given pattern. First it was 2015-16, then it was 1997-98, and on it goes.
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8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg
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I like what these VP forecasts are showing. Nice trend. I don’t agree that 8-1-2 necessarily means warm in the east if the MEI stays under 1.2 (iow the nino doesn’t go super)
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Still doesn’t look like a palm-trees-can-grow-in-NYC torch to me
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So if we get a ssw dec 25-jan 15, how long will it take to see the effects in the troposphere? Around late Jan or early Feb?
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Bluewave talking about palm trees growing in NYC
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I’ve found that MJO 7 is actually a precursor to some of the biggest EC snowstorms. So I would love for us to get to 7 sooner than later, and keep the forcing around or just east of the dateline. MJO 7 may be a mild look in December, but think that changes later into the winter.
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Right. I mean, yes there are 30c ssts in the MC, but there are also 30c ssts in nino 4 and part of 3.4. Once the mjo wave propagates through the MC now, the forcing will move over the warmest ssts in the nino areas.
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In MJO 4-6 for only 10 days. Quite brief. Once we get to 7, things will start to get interesting.
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Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”
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0.7” still raining
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For now the northern stream is very fast and strong, but was probably well forecasted for December. Still think it’ll calm down and give the STJ more room once we get to mjo 7 and beyond
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Yeah its one of the key things I look for in a nino, a trough in the SW isn’t a bad thing as long as we have a ridge over the top to bring colder air to us with an active STJ south of us. If all model ensembles are still showing this inside day 10, we’ll have something to track
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Classic split flow pattern out west
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31.3 low
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Low of 23
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Looking at the ensemble means, the first half of dec looks slightly AN but not by much. Couple degrees F above here and there. Some 3-5 day periods 5-10 F above, other periods near or slightly BN.
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Yeah you’re right. We’re in pretty much uncharted territory. I just don’t think we’ll see another Dec 2015 or that the PDO will overpower the nino, especially as it recently strengthened. There aren’t many similar years to this, except 65-66 and 09-10. So that’s where I looked for clues. You looked for clues in different places, and that’s fair.
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Same for now. The big dog usually comes late Jan thru Feb
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Low of 19.8
