Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Well said man
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I think the NAM is overdone, but it sure feels good to be tracking something while it’s only dec 8. And we’re not even in a good pattern right now. Totally different vibe than last year
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Latest LWX AFD acknowledged snow might fall at lower elevations, but unlikely to accumulate with temps at 35-36. Let’s see if we trend colder though.
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I was going to say that. So yep, bring it on!
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Not saying this is a credible threat, but in order for this to pan out, yes we’d need that secondary LP to develop while the h5 trough axis lags behind fropa
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Yeah we’d need more of a -epo this early. It may not matter as much in Jan/Feb though
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That’s what I’ve been saying for a while. Some of our biggest snowstorms started as a wave in the north pacific while the mjo was in 7
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I think that’s the only part we’re NOT on the same page about
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Maybe its trying to resolve downsloping and upslope. Probably not correct verbatim, but if it was, I’d get a couple inches as well
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Better now than Jan/Feb
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I’d take it
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Phase 7 by 15th (give or take). Still no can-kick
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Yeah, the recent convection must have cooled those waters. I think the maritime content had 30c but those were shallow. In nino 4 east of the dateline though, the warm waters run much deeper and have more energy to feed convection in mjo 7-8-1. I predicted in my outlook that all mjo phases would be wide open especially as the IOD faded. Well, the IOD faded a bit a month early, so its good that mjo is going through 4-6 outside of prime climo. It was to be expected though, rather than be seen as bad news. We just have to wait the mjo out and the pieces will be set where we want them to be.
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Yeah, I was so sick of getting hopes up with the gfs last year. I’m glad they fixed the damned thing
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Was the GFS updated after last winter? It hasn’t shown much digital snow like it did last year (very wrongly so ofc)
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West of rt 15 may see something, but east of that, I’m not as confident. (I’m 5 miles east of 15 as the crow flies)
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Cloudy, 36. No precip, but sure has a winter vibe. Nice surprise for the NE part of this sub! Anyone with more than a trace? Maybe we can call it the first “cumulative” inch and get on with it! (Or is that my inner weenie talking?)
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One point to add, we’re progged to get into phase 7 around Dec 12-15. That hasn’t changed, so I’m not seeing a can-kick there. Also to reiterate, some of our biggest EC snows started as a wave in the N Pac while the MJO was in phase 7.
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The plot thickens. It may take a while to work its way down though.
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Grats to those who saw flakes today. Sunny here lol
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Deck and car was wet, pavement kinda dry. I assume it was rain because I never went below 36 for the night
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Thanks, psu. I was kinda surprised at the reaction. Maybe they forgot about that analysis I did a few months ago. And yes we’d need modeling resources if we really wanted to dynamically simulate what a past storm would like today, but we don’t have those resources. Anyway, back to our regularly scheduled tracking…
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Dry here. 37
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Feb 1987 is also a loss based on my analysis, yes
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@psuhoffmanis right about 65-66. The marginal Feb event that dropped 9” at IAD would be a total loss today (all rain). But the January blizzard would be even more juiced. Like 50% more qpf and snowfall totals. If that were to repeat, such a historic blizzard would become even more historic, rivaling or even beating the Jan 1996/Feb 2010/Jan 2016 class of blizzards. Do we take this chance? I would.
