Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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And ensembles showing a colder look for entire NA. Canada at +5 instead of +15. Could be smoothing, but still a good sign
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I remember that. Maybe they do this retroactively
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Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.
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Yeah I was thinking the same. Not like Dec 2015 at all.
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It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something.
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540 line shifting from canada to south VA. Big shift still has a pos tilt to it though
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21.9 for the low
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Surprised weeklies run daily now. And even though Iove how they look today, the fact that they’re flip flopping so hard hardy increases any confidence in them. Let’s see if they stick with the new look the next several runs.
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This recent -NAO late november, which model sniffed it out first? Gfs or euro? just curious
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Good, now lets see if EPS follows, and both hold onto this colder look for 2 more cycles
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May even lay down good snowcover up in Canada even - especially - when they're +20. Down here we're at only +3 on those runs. At the end of December, it's marginally cold enough
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The good news is that guidance is still doubling down on SSW in a few weeks or so. That may be the thing that shakes things up and gives us more blocking. Just that they’re not picking it up on the mid levels yet
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CFS shows a literal nina for next year
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Yeah, this year will be a good test case. Agree about grading ninos on a curve, but we will see how much CC shifts the entire curve. Sorry had to mention it. But I’m not giving up on this winter. Far from it.
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Just checked long range CFS, and it looks like we go right back into a nina with more of the same. And solar will descend, meaning more +NAO. This year is THE shot we have towards a good-to-great winter. Of course it’ll snow in other winters like Jan 2022, but this year is our shot at a blockbuster. We won’t get another shot at this for a while.
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For us, 8 in COD or weak, is actually colder than a strong 8.
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Noticed the canadian showing this. No support from the other models, but worth keeping an eye on. This is a very long shot due to lack of cold air, but last time we had a "long shot with not enough cold air" it snowed here and most people got 1-2".
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Its roughly 2 weeks out when guidance hones in on the overall pattern, right? So we get to New Years, look at the guidance, and there's no sign of a better pattern, or a transition to a better one, two weeks out... that takes us to roughly Jan 15 with nothing on the horizon. That's when I'll start getting worried.
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I wouldn’t say that just yet. January is still 3 weeks away, and a lot can change between now and then. But what I will say is if by the time we’re still looking for a good pattern by Jan 15 on the models, we cannot afford another can kick then.
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Same sentiments. I really did think that the mjo would go into 7-8-1 because of those 30c ssts east of the dateline. And those warm waters run even deeper than the MC. I thought placing more importance on the impacts of MC ssts over the E Dateline ssts was misguided, but maybe I gotta rethink that. Again, I’m no expert on the MJO because we kinda glossed over it in my met studies. So that’s where my knowledge gap is, I guess
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Low of 24
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Yeah, and even if siberia is +15, it’s still extremely cold there.
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I’m no expert, but it could be that powerful jet extensions are self limiting and eventually break down. They can’t keep on this fast and strong forever, otherwise the laws of physics would be broken
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Yeah, it's better for the MA/SE to have a weak MJO than a strong one in any phase. Even a strong 8 might not help us (1998 is a good example). With super warm 30c ssts east of the dateline, we might keep the MJO weak and hold it there for a while instead of it circling back to the warm phases too quickly
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Update to my outlook (no change)
