Terpeast

Wife and daughter just asked me when it’s gonna snow. I thought about the recent model runs, but I didn’t have the heart to tell them that I’m tracking something. I just said “when I see it snowing, I’ll tell you”

Yeah. And even if 1/4 doesn’t quite phase, it can still set us up for 1/7 as depicted by the gfs. Still way out though, I’ll start getting excited when we get it within 5 days

Nice to see 2 runs in a row for 1/7. But I wonder how close 1/4 is to something. Gfs doesn’t quite phase the two steams yet.

Wow... huge HUGE improvement in the Aleutian low strength and positioning. With a roll forward, we should see that produce western ridging.

And with a SSWE / weak SPV, and we have the potential to get sustained blocking not unlike this one

NS vort dug deeper for 1/4, but suppressed because the wave behind it is more weaker and thus more progressive, so less spacing. That adds to some uncertainty for the first event, which needs to be resolved to work out the details of the 1/7 event

I’m interested in how the euro has trended in the last few runs. I’m only out to 99h on TT so I should see it soon

Some trends from the GEFS I'm seeing: Jan 4 - stronger high to the NW, but a bit more suppressed. This makes an amped all-rain solution less likely, but it can still miss us to the south.... ... Unless we see the NS and SS phase a bit more. Not sure I'm seeing a trend with the ensembles due to smoothing, but maybe it's very slight? Seeing that NS wave dig in a bit more? And for the Jan 7, noteworthy trend towards a stronger HP to the north with the SLP coming up a bit north.

And it's worth noting that the 1/7 system has been way too warm at the surface for several runs the last few days. It's almost like we need the first system to go ape off the coast to bring colder air in. And that's what I noticed on the 12z gfs. Still needs ensemble support as well as the other op models.

I wonder if the trend on 1/4 is setting us up for the 1/7 system. I’ll be watching this closely

12z op gfs a step closer to a phase for jan 5. NS got way stronger and further S and W. End result is still suppressed, but continue this trend it may show a totally different solution

I have posted mine. It’s in the MA forum. It may yet go up in flames, and if that happens, I’ll learn something from it.

Oh, to some it does matter. The willingness to put oneself on the line at the risk of getting it wrong earns a lot more respect from me, than always being right about short term lead times. And I don’t think I’m alone in saying this.

Yes, bluewave’s accuracy in 1-2 week lead times has been deadly. But did he put himself on the line by issuing his own winter outlook? I haven’t seen one.

If you posted your own winter outlook, you’d be getting enormous credit if this played out like you’re saying. Maybe you did post your winter outlook and I must have missed it?

Besides we want the aleutian low at the tip of the aleutians instead of GOA, because that’s where it takes residence during more moderate/modoki ninos. Ridging pokes northward into Alaska that brings more cold air into an undercutting STJ. That’s the path to winning (in late Jan & feb) and we’re not that far off. Of course it could go sideways in the process, but now’s not the time to cancel winter. Lowered expectations? Probably.

@psuhoffman 06z trended better in the long run. Aleutian ridge weaker, aleutian low looks like it wants to reload behind it. It’s just one run, so we’ll see.

Trying to pin me on what I did to you eh? This isn’t a weekly, and it’s less than 2 weeks out. Nice try @Ji

Cutter > fropa > cold/dry What I’m interested in is what happens after

I hear what you’re saying. Even in a great pattern, and even if we have plenty of cold air, we still wouldn’t expect to get a hit with every storm. Take the 1980s for example, it was plenty cold but many storms were misses, suppressed, or badly timed that we got rain or sleet. In those cases, cold air wasn’t a problem. Something else was. Now? Cold air is sorely lacking after the canada torch and in this specific case, we DO need 10,000 things to come together right for it to snow. Maybe later in the season cold air will be more abundant and we’d only need a few more things to go right. And by the way, we already got snow in a bad pattern this season. Dec 10th, I believe.

Not sure why my comment deserved a snarky retort, but it’s always been the case that we need stuff to line up right to get snow here. Cold air is the #1 ingredient and my comment is about what it takes to get enough cold air to snow for these 2 threats. Otherwise it’s not gonna work. I know that.

It still can be. Maybe not a pure all-snow event, but if timed right (happens at night, NS vort leads a bit bringing a push of colder air) we could maybe get a mixed R/S event on the lowlands with elevation snowfall.

Now the trend we want to look for is whether it gets colder up top as lead times shorten. Right now it's a few degrees to warm at the surface up to 950 mb for both systems, but the second system has trended colder. Just a little nudge is all it takes.

And the NYC forum is even more pessimistic than we are. According to them, it's never going to snow again even up there

Appears not