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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific
  2. Terpeast
    Why are we even looking at op runs 10 days out? They couldn’t even get it right at 5 days for this Saturday’s storm
  3. Terpeast
    12/11: 0.5” 1/1: T 1/6: 0.2" (sleet/snow mix)
  4. Terpeast
    12Z nam gives me 3-4", which I think is the boom scenario for mby. Bust would obviously be a mix to rain scenario.
  5. Terpeast
    LR looks good, but I’m worried about the MJO trending stronger in the warm phases. I hope that’s wrong, but if it isn’t it might interfere with The Look. We want it to stay weak enough.
  6. Terpeast
    Low of 32, now 38. Nothing falling
  7. Terpeast
    It drew a line right over us 5 days ago. We want that line to be 50-100 miles south of us so we’re still good even if it trended north even a little
  8. Terpeast
    I think 1-3” before the flip is a reasonable call Loudoun-MoCo and west. Fairfax county might struggle to reach an inch. Higher elevations or west of 81 may see 2-4” locally 5” Best we can hope for is that thermals tick a bit colder and we hold the flip off an extra hour or two
  9. Terpeast
    Yeah we should start looking at mesos now, its 60 hours till game time. CMC - careful what you wish for. Brutal cutoff in snow amounts. I’d prefer a more uniform thump for most of us even if the jack is less snow. Lets save the biggie for the better pattern up ahead
  10. Terpeast
    Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at least
  11. Terpeast
    Looking at the 0z nam and 18z gfs just now… I feel that trailing vort might do some weird things if it gets closer to the backside
  12. Terpeast
    Good elevation? If not, don’t buy. Just kidding!
  13. Terpeast
    Edited my post to say i was being sarcastic, but I’ll wait until after 1/7-1/9 to update my forecast if need be
  14. Terpeast
    And one of them will be wrong. Or both.
  15. Terpeast
    MJO gonna go ape in the warm phases Nino isn’t enough to overpower the nina base state 11th straight warmest winter for NE, bad juju there It’s never going to snow again, so we’re f’ed /sarcasm
  16. Terpeast
    Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one.
  17. Terpeast
    For a modest 3BR/3BA house at Wisp/McHenry.
  18. Terpeast
    Fall line again
  19. Terpeast
    I can see the LWX office going “wtf.. let’s call the New Mexico office to get a damn balloon up there”
  20. Terpeast
    This is now within 72 hours, so maybe we start looking at the ops and mesos. Hope the mesos pick up on a colder bleed down that the globals might be missing. Wishful thinking maybe, but I've seen this movie before.
  21. Terpeast
    Sounds like it pulled option A
  22. Terpeast
    When does it have precip starting? I’m still on 6z on TT
  23. Terpeast
    I'm at 325 ft and the creek below me is probably 300' on the dot
  24. Terpeast
    Still a TPV in Ontario. That's a pretty cold and stormy look
  25. Terpeast
    Still in the game, but nailbitingly close. With it being so marginal, I'm mentally dividing 10:1 snow maps east of the blue ridge by half. (not that we should be looking at these snow maps anyway) Can't do much model analysis because I'm at work
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