Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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He shoulda gone to EZF
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Yeah plenty reason to be nervous about hrrr. But if it makes you feel better, it ticked north at 11z and the new 12z filled out the moisture fetch on the backside.
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That is a great fetch. I’m thinking the Nam 3k is going to be more right than the hrrr because the nam strengthens or maintains fetch strength while the hrrr weakens it.
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30/19. Models look a tick south but still good for 3-5 mby
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Gfs adamant on double digit totals south of dc close to RIC but the wakefield wfo isn’t having any of it.
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Toss
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Dropped to 29
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Its close but ya its snow, i dont think sleet makes it that far up. Maybe quantico or dumfries
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I think 3k is realistic with snow amounts, moreso than 12k nam
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3k has intensifying rates at around 2-3 pm with temps dropping to freezing
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3k nam has sleet making it up to DCA
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NAM 12k a solid 6-9” for dc metro
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Yep, roughly. But stickage and road caving by 4 pm imo
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At minimum 9 hours of heavy snow, 0.5-1+”/hr rates.
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Nam 12k at hour 21 is a pummeling. Let’s see what the higher res counterpart says
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Check the sounding. It’ll be snow. May not stick well at first though
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33/17
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Down to 37/18. 2 deg last hour
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39/19
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What, really? That's surprising
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the 12k NAM was definitely overdone, and I don't see much change on the 3k NAM from previous run yet. looks like 5-6" when lopping off the initial inch before dark for DC metro including IAD. This is 10 to 1
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Sticking with my first call, no reason to change it yet. 3-6" DC & NW burbs, 4-8" south till you get to EZF then mixing further south
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Looks like it removed all the double digit accums, and the rest is usual noise. It's a hold, I think
