Jump to content

Terpeast

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,326

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    https://www.pwsweather.com/
  2. Terpeast
    I’m in between 2 pws. 29 and 26
  3. Terpeast
    Nah, we’ll probably go into another multi-year nina after this one because that seems to happen every time an el nino goes strong borderline super. This winter is our best shot at a KU or at least hitting climo with a couple of snowstorms. Still 2 months of winter left. But if we don’t hit, that’s it for us. Lights out.
  4. Terpeast
    Most are in 20s already. Last run had us in low 30s at this time
  5. Terpeast
    Just checked 3k nam, seems to have corrected a bit colder both at surface and 850mb.
  6. Terpeast
    Bottomed out at 27, rose back up to 28.8. dewpoint 22 clouds probably rolled overhead
  7. Terpeast
    Down to 27, dews steady at 21
  8. Terpeast
    29/21, still clear skies
  9. Terpeast
    Might not change what happens upstairs at 850 but could increase period of icing/sleet. Or if rates are heavy, someone east of the blue ridge could get thumped
  10. Terpeast
    Lets see what the 0z mesos look like
  11. Terpeast
    A good step
  12. Terpeast
    32/21 already
  13. Terpeast
    I'm at 37.8, and 10 minutes NW of the airport as the crow flies.
  14. Terpeast
    18z 3k nam thermals colder between 11-16z tomorrow
  15. Terpeast
    It's getting closer. EC looks mint. Before I was watching the 15-20 period, but if that FROPA on the 13th becomes something different in a better way, that window becomes a little larger. 13-20. And the 13th is only 8 days away
  16. Terpeast
    Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass
  17. Terpeast
    Good, now let’s see the GEFS do the same
  18. Terpeast
    Very possible at D7-8
  19. Terpeast
    6z had nothing in E Loudoun right? 2” line back over me now. Let’s hope its the start of a good trend with NW AR seeing a nice surprise in their backyards ETA it’s 39.6 here. Sunny, dews at 21
  20. Terpeast
    It could swing back our way if the 850 LLJ was overforecasted and the qpf is heavier on the front end. But i’m not exactly holding my breath. It would be a nice surprise.
  21. Terpeast
    Looking at soundings, probably
  22. Terpeast
    Yea, I've been ignoring the GEM, even the ensembles. Biased way too cold
  23. Terpeast
    All ens models agree on a colder window between Jan 15 and Jan 20. 850mb temps will be below normal during those 5-6 days. Now the question is, can we get a well-timed wave passing over us within that window? Probably not at the beginning since that'll be the FROPA bringing colder air. But can it happen in the middle or at the end? I don't see a discrete SS wave in the 24h precip anomaly nor MSLP anomaly panels... at least not yet. Too far out to answer that question for now.
  24. Terpeast
    This is one of those events where we don't really know what's going to happen until the precip actually starts coming down.
  25. Terpeast
    So would I. This has morphed into a wintry mix event with that warm layer at 850mb. Let's hope the southerly winds are less strong than forecast so we could hold off the changeover.
×
×
  • Create New...