Terpeast

Map? If the low pressure track is the same, then what's the problem?

I can't say conclusively because IAD data doesn't go back that far. So if I look at BWI data, that Dec 4, 1957 storm was with a high of 33 and low 29. If we warm that up by 4 degrees, we get 37/33. Maybe that 8 inches gets cut to 2-3" or becomes a mix/rain. That Jan clipper I think might still get us 1" because the cold air leading up to it was pretty cold with lows in the teens. But who knows. Feb 15-16, 1958 was a 16 inch storm for BWI with temps decreasing from 32 to 9 throughout the event. Plenty of cold before the event, too. I don't think warming this up by 4 degrees would have affected this storm if it were to happen today. March 19-20, 1958 was a 7 incher with temps between 33 and 39. Expect a rainstorm if it happened today. Don't know about IAD or points further west from IAD-BWI, might just be cold enough for wet snow in marginal situations.

Yeah I pointed out earlier how fast the mjo wave is projected to go, and once it gets to p7 we can expect a reload of a good pattern with an aleutian low returning for late Jan into Feb brooklyn’s weeklies show this too. Some big dogs start out as a wave in the pac during mjo7

Op CMC may look like a turd, but look at the last 4-6 runs. It's trended better and now looks similar to the GFS. We only need them both to trend a little better and maybe a bit more suppressed at these lead times. 0z ensembles looked good on all 3

This is correct. The 540 height line is usually different from the 540 thickness line because of the variation of surface pressures. But if the surface pressure is exactly 1000 mb, then the 540 height is the same as the 540 thickness line, where thickness is defined as the height between the 1000mb and 500mb pressure surfaces. Usually, though, sfc pressure is a little higher than 1000 mb, so you have this extra air under the 1000-500mb layer, so the total height from surface to 500mb would be greater than 5400m… UNLESS the column is so cold that the 500mb pressure surface shrinks vertically below 5400m. Why highlight the 540dm height line? I don’t know. Seems mostly arbitrary. Or that 1000mb is the closest pressure surface to the actual surface. Someone can probably explain it better than me. Or use ChatGPT

That’s a big shift. Makes it hard to dump the trough in the SW

Cold SW, warm East

He was clearly trolling. Don’t feed him

Right where we want it atm

We’re not gonna know the exact jan 16-17 track within 200 miles until the second cutter passes by

I just checked, all ensembles/models agree on a jan 16-17 wave with varying degrees of suppression or cutter-ish looks. The ops (ec and canadian) show a cutter those days, but all ensembles show a more suppressed track which makes more sense with the block and colder air up top. The ops dump all cold air to the west making the storm cut, but I think that’s a low probability outcome that’s being over-projected by the cutter pattern this week.

Agree. I for one would love to see a suppressed look at D7-10 lead times. And brooklyn didn’t deserve that potshot from ralph

Either way, glad to see a better looking op run at 7 days out. That’s when the ops start to hone in on a general synoptic look and progression

Are you still hoping jan 13 won’t be a cutter? (Serious question)

The fact that we still have cutters this winter doesn’t concern me in the least. I predicted that we will see them half the time. Note above normal precip anomalies in the midwest from my winter outlook. Two branches of the STJ, one that cuts and one that doesn’t. This week it will be the former. But it won’t last, instead we will likely rotate between those two dominant tracks.

I didn’t say that. I said we have a window of opportunity Jan 15-20/22 before looking forward to Feb

Can’t deny the trend, but it may progress fast enough to get to p7 by Jan 25-28 give or take. Then it’s game on for Feb. let’s hope we get an opportunity in between the 15th and 22nd

@Heisy comparing the op to ensembles is tricky because the op will change from to run, sometimes so drastically that the next run may render your analysis moot.

That’s the time frame I’m keeping an eye on. 15-20 or so and yes @CAPE I’d be all over a 6-10” event. If we get that in January, and another storm in Feb, that could put us at climo or above.

Update on my winter outlook for our subforum. TLDR - lowered expectations by 25% east of 15. No change west of 15.

January 6 Update - Slightly Lower Expectations in the lowlands and/or east of Route 15 While I would never cancel an El Nino winter for the mid-Atlantic, as of Jan 6, we've missed a big opportunity in the lowlands to get towards my expectations of an above-climo winter. West of route 15, however, is still very much on track and can meet or even exceed my snowfall forecast. But east of 15 in the low lands and coastal plan, we're facing an uphill battle to even reach climo. Of course we can still reach it in one big storm. The chances of 1 big KU is still higher as it's ever been. The STJ is on steroids and is as relentless as I have ever seen it. But we've lacked cold air and while we might get some more of that in the coming weeks, our window of opportunity is shrinking and fast. Especially with a projected late-Jan thaw, before a February reload with the SSWE. We NEED February to go on an absolute tear to get above climo, and if it doesn't happen, we will fall short. Maybe not in the mountains, which will still do fine, but definitely for the low lands east of 15. Sorry if my thoughts seem disorganized, I'm writing this while watching my 2 year old daughter run circles around me. She's going stir crazy. We need snow... BAD. While I'm going to officially grade myself on my original forecast, I created a new map to reflect my expectations going forward. No change west of 15, but east of 15 I'm cutting amounts by 25-30% (with an extra 20% siting penalty on DCA). Whether we reach climo at the main airport sites is now 50/50.

I was thinking about that the other day when tracking today's system. Like how I miss the times when we'd wake up to surprise snows, or when something sneaks up on us within a couple of days.

Pouring rain here @clskinsfan hard to believe you’re only a 40 min drive west of me and you’re rippin and I’m weepin

The 13th wasn't supposed to be our storm though. Any wintry precip we get from that I'd call a bonus. I'm more interested in 15-20. I'm too burnt out from this weekend's storm to play the rain/snow line game for 7 days...

Euro was the best, but it wasn't good. All models were pretty bad