Terpeast

gfs trended opposite direction from euro today, but with 18z euro/eps that may have stopped. We’ll see what they decide to do next

Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing

Just checked back at previous euro runs, and they all had that feature even when they had the closer track. So I’m less sure now that it makes a difference, unless the kicker is getting stronger and faster. The atmosphere up that way is pretty chaotic so I don’t think any of the models are right about what will happen up there. May be even more of a wildcard than the cutter’s evolution

Yeah I pointed that out earlier today. thing is, canadian had it too, just not as strong and further back. What the euro showed didn’t make sense to me

Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro

Yeah, so have I. I don’t know if I’ll even bother doing a full outlook for it unless either enso or pdo suddenly flip. Maybe a 4 bullet point outlook with a one-liner statement instead of a 30 page report. I’ll probably invest that time into planning a winter trip out west.

Maybe a trip to Spokane where my brother lives. They’ve been KILLING it with nina winters

GFS doubles down. Your move, Euro.

Looks a little slower, but we'll see

Haha yeah I gotta hand it to him, though. Heisy is sharp and picks up on things most of us don't see.

That answered my question. Good sign if it’s the furthest South of the ensembles

Is that the one next to the 13? and how do you know that's the OP?

I think I know why the Euro spit out a way different solution, and I think it's weird. I'll also show why the CMC showed something different, like a closer track with ptype issues. Euro has this trailing vort that's pretty strong, but never phases with the TPV. Instead, they stay separate, while they squeeze the positively tilted wave further SE. Too much confluence over us. The Canadian otoh has a weaker trailing vort that's further behind... either less relevant, or loses energy to the lead vort that closes off west of the mississippi. This is the other end of the spectrum vs. the euro. Less confluence up top doesn't help either. Now the GFS shows the cleanest solution. Where is that trailing vort? There isn't one. Instead we have tall ridging into NW Canada/Alaska. We have an open wave rotating under the TPV with more confluence to the NE. I don't know what to make of the trailing vort shown on the Euro and Canadian, and the lack thereof on the GFS. Maybe they're both picking up on something that the GFS is missing. But it's something to keep an eye on. On the other hand, the TPV seems to be well modeled and in fairly good agreement with all 3 models. I think the Euro solution is weird because the strong trailing vort and the TPV never manages to phase. From a physics standpoint, I think they should. But they don't.

Now if you're a weenie, you'll love what Chuck is saying now. All it will take is for a slight 50-100 mile shift in the TPV to pull the track back up (or further suppress it)

My hunch is that we'll see another tick north once the models resolve the next few days. That's been the repetitive theme as far as I can remember.

Op euro probably on the SE side of the ensemble envelope, which means we can't rule a solution like that out. At least most members are more NW of the op

Again, it goes back to clearing the cutter outta here before we can hone in on a solution. Sorry I sound like a broken record saying this but it is what it is

This only increases the uncertainty even more

We know, but we've gotten rug pulled too many times to put that superstition to bed

All models have trended towards the euro except the CMC

Yeah, a bit east

Is that ukie trending further SE?

Think if euro/gfs both agree, we can safely throw out the cmc. And euro/eps has led the way on this. Lets see if this holds today and tomorrow if I’m going to start a thread, I’d start it on Saturday after the 0z runs

I don’t like the CMC solution, but it still seems unsettled with the h5 evolution. How has its performance been lately?

It would. I’m cautiously optimistic but not fully in yet.