Terpeast

I bought some extra strength high-ABV craft brews for the weekend... to either celebrate, or to comfort myself.

In this case, yes.

Checked LWX AFD this morning... they are being careful

Yeah, I noticed the Canadian had it, as did previous Euro runs when they had the storm closer in. It's probably something else.

Still odd, because in that run, the TPV phases somewhat with the trailing piece, but in a previous 12z run yesterday they didn't phase as I pointed out - still same result. Either way, I think there's some error here. But I'm still worried that other guidance is missing that trailing piece or its strength. I just hope that Euro's bias in hanging too much energy in that trailing piece is at work.

This isn't the first time that Euro was out on its own too far SE and then corrected in 2 runs. Let's hope this precedent continues here. https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1357391753909850112?s=20

Ok thought it was too early for the 6z ens. I’m discounting the outliers on both sides (cmc on one, euro on the other). I still think the op Euro is too suppressed at least for now. Things may change once the cutter gets out of here.

Are you saying the euro caved? Huge if true

That took more than 9 days! Like way more lol

Looks to me as the spread is showing a potentially slower system with more stragglers behind the main group

Gee, who could have that been? Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat

Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol)

Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential

0z GEFS almost no difference at 120

Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian)

I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later

Not only that, but also the track and how the block evolves

For me, when the gfs and euro trend the same way, it’s a sign. But tomorrow’s cutter still hasn’t grown to full strength and cleared the CONUS yet. That will determine the strength and location of the TPV, and it is still TBD. While I had a moment of frustration with the trends, I get that we should expect a lot of wavering for a couple more days. Especially with this new trailing wave idea that the euro (and gfs?) seems to be picking up on. And this gfs run while further SE, if that s/w just digs a little more and tilts, we still retain the upside potential. We’re not out of this yet, but the goal posts are such that we can still whiff.

Nice to see a 2-4/3-5er but I really don’t like the trend. I’m concerned

Trend points to a rug pull

Looks SE from earlier runs today, but not as suppressed as 0z/11 i take that back, even more S

I’m on pivotal weather

Looks a little slower to me. Or flatter

Icon move its slp position 500 miles to the SE, lol I told you guys we shouldn’t be starting a thread until like Saturday

Got it, thanks for the clarification. Tangentially related, I read a couple of AFDs noting the suppressed 12z/18z euro track but called it an outlier and didn’t want to jump on it yet, just monitoring that trend for now