Terpeast

Agree, the jack might be just NW/NE of Balt. My area will be cold enough but maybe too far W to jack. Still seems good for 1-3” if the models are right

Looks maybe as if the warm up will be brief.

Did they feed PSU’s drawings into the Gfs as input? Hmmm

Just a slightly deeper dig, and this has nuke potential

Digging a little more… i’m interested

TPV is way east, more into 50/50. Might help

Maybe not. Because 12z held a lot of energy back behind the vort which may have allowed it to dig. I don’t see it on 18z or this run

And TPV slightly east

It’s a hold, or even slightly better.

Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous.

Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD)

18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus

Nice to see the NAM but PV (the site) seems to be slow tonight

This is encouraging because the EPS long range has been doing great this winter.

I’ll take

Are you saying the gfs handles nrn streams better than the euro?

At least this is inside 7 days. I'll get more excited once we get within 4 days and it's still showing similar outcomes. And we need the euro on board.

Not the answer we were all hoping for, though.

Chuck has talked about the hadley cell expansion. To translate Chuck-speak, the tropics and midlatitudes have been warming so their circulation has been expanding, pushing the jet slightly north, and taking all the storm tracks with it. This is the key flaw in my own analysis of how past snowstorms would perform today. My assumption was that the storm tracks would remain the same, but the temps a few degrees warmer. But what I did not account for (or have the resources to analyze) was how the storm tracks would be affected by that warming. Take the blizzard of 1996 for example. That was a la nina winter. Normally the jet would cut north of us, but that storm dived so deep to the south that we got a hit from it. Do you think that if we got the same setup today, but the jet is further north, we’d still get the same result? Or would it have not dug so deep? Would it have been a cutter today? Or a miller B? Or even NO storm at all?

It’s not just perfect track rainstorms. It’s the jet stream shifting north

I do share this sentiment. I don’t remember too many 3-6/4-8” storms, but the big ones are vividly etched into my photographic memories. I just hope my memory doesn’t go when I get older (and I’m not exactly a spring chicken either)

Yeah, I think deep down we know we already have our answer

And then watch it fall apart by D3

I think that boat has sailed. We needed at least one of the two storms from jan 16-21 to hit fairly big to put this winter within that class of analogs.

I’m in bargaining mode now. If we can manage an inch in Jan, I’m good with that.