Terpeast

For the MA, phase 7 is a transition phase. It is usually the precursor to big storms. Not always, but some.

0.27"

Fell short of 50 today, high of 49. Felt like winter!

Yes. -50 inches Joking aside, I’m thinking more a 2000-01 / 2017-18 winter here, fast start in december, normal transitory january, then february torch. But if the SSW happens and the aftereffects last long with the lag Chuck keeps mentioning, we may extend the good start to cover 2/3 of the winter season. Won’t take much to get us to climo, with march as a cherry top if we can get anything out of that month (which we haven’t in a long time - we’re due)

Welp, I went even lower than him. I'd be happy to be wrong, in our favor.

Low of 24, coldest so far

28.9

BWI: 11.2” DCA: 9.8” IAD: 13.5” RIC: 5.8” (Tiebreaker) SBY: 8.6”

Nothing yet, hopefully something pops within a couple hours

Thank you for saying the quiet part outloud. I have him on ignore anyways.

I absolutely agree with this. Same for LA and FL getting 10"+ and a 4 degree low soon after. I'm not at all worried about losing the big ones. Just that they might be spaced out in larger intervals instead of every 3-7 years between 1979 and 2016.

Only down to 29.8, thought it’d be 28 or lower

That winter, particularly February, was notable because of a huge noreaster from NJ north, and Mt Washington got 49" in 24 hours, or a total of 91" over 3 days. See 100 hour snowstorm: The 100-Hour Snowstorm of February 1969 | NOAA Climate.gov Another one just before that hit western NC and northern SC with up to 2 feet. There was a thread about it on this very forum: February 1969 Foothills/Piedmont Deep Snowstorm - Southeastern States - American Weather There was almost no noteworthy events for Dec and Jan. With strong greenland blocking and a strong aleutian ridge, it was probably cold and dry along the SE and east, much like a modern La Nina pattern we've been seeing over the last several years - only colder. In a modern climate, probably little or no snow, just a few degrees warmer. Then in Feb, a ridge began to build over the rockies while the greenland block continued, and then those two big storms happened.

With a SSW/weak PV being forecast this month, I checked when the last time we had a SSW in November. 1968. So I looked up the 1968-69 analog, and most of the teleconnections match. -QBO, -PDO, +AMO, etc... except it was a weak nino, not a nina. It was a very cold winter, averaging roughly -5 through DJFM, snowfall was backloaded apart from an early November snow. With this winter being a weak nina, snow might be more front-loaded and may be colder than what seasonal models are depicting, assuming the SSW verifies.

Would you say that the PNA pushing positive despite the +WPO/Pacific marine heat wave is what's behind some of the suppressed storm tracks that gave Louisiana and Florida and SE VA double digit snows? That's just me visualizing the patterns in my head... but I haven't really looked at the PNA data (been heads down with MJO at work lately).