Terpeast

Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.

He is lucky to have you!

If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas

He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning for a big change is his position/outlook.

Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter.

You’re quite the story teller! No cap. I noticed the EPS fading the SE ridge this morning as well. GEFS did the same thing.

I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though.

Wdym? All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts.

Add Dec 2022 to that. The holidays was downright arctic. We all know what happened after that.

Looks a lot different than yesterday. If they are fluctuating this much, it really lowers confidence in the weeklies at this time.

Happy anniversary!

25 for the low

If we’re going to maintain a -WPO, we’ll need the -NAO/-WPO ridge bridge to connect to push the TPV south into Canada making it easier to get a trough in the east.

As in one strong cutter dumping cold air behind it towards us and suddenly we’re tracking a follow up wave. Could really happen anytime, but I have that pegged in week 2/3 in Jan. Could be sooner.