Terpeast

We got the snow globe in Ashburn, just jebwalked with my daughter. Good for the soul

actual flakes coming down. Still very light

Mostly graupel falling. Ashburn

Looking ahead to sunday (tomorrow?) I see the 00z models trended more NW, giving us a couple inches?

There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support.

Dusting. 0.1”. 37

Got a dusting overnight

Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians.

GOA low might break through and torch the whole North America. We’ll likely hold onto the cold the longest, and I hope its only temporary as mjo tries to get into 8 and weeklies pop another -ao in early feb. But once canada torches, it’ll take a long time for us to get cold again. edit: euro does this, but gefs (12z) doesn’t quite punch the goa low through

Right now it looks like that window closes Jan 30, so we better score by then.

Light event. onto the next one you’ve got this. Kinda hard to do php with a hungry baby demanding more milk

I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest

Feels like a race between cold and precip at 150

Gulf moisture coming into TVA, boundary further north. We may have temp issues for jan 22

Vort consolidating over MT at 120. Less cold press over us. Again too early