Terpeast

Fringed

No there isn’t. I was looking at 12z

Some maps I look at are for commercial use and can’t share publicly

El nino during a solar min? Not trying to speak for Chuck…

EPS has a mean of 6-8” for the dmv, at least double that of gefs

Not sure which storm you were talking about specifically, but there was one coastal storm in feb 2023 that dropped 1.3” qpf imby and more in other places. Temps were 37-40. I’ve wondered if we copied and pasted that storm onto the 60s-80s winters, it would have been 13”+ I’ll add that after last winter and this December, I feel a lot better about future winter prospects compared to how I felt through 22-23 and 23-24. Those two winters were just plain ugly temp wise, but we’ve been getting colder temps so that hasn’t been the issue as much as dryness and the lack of STJ moisture.

Ensemble support, too.

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

This one is yours. The Ralph Wiggum Storm. Question is, are you gonna deliver?

I'm just as annoyed as the next guy at the pull back in trends, but in this case I don't think the GL low is to blame. If it were an arctic high, I think it would be even more suppressive/OTS.

Probably best to stick with a personal rule of not getting invested until 3 days before the event - just like the old days. We've seen models, especially the GFS and its ensembles, show something good at 5 days and we think it's "in range" only to have them pull back at 4 days. I also think that maybe the balloon launch cancellations out west are having an effect on the models at the 4-5 day range.

Brutal hobby

Good news, PNA is finally trending up in the 11-15 day! 6-10 will be moderately negative but not extremely so.

Looks like euro was a step back for Sunday, but maybe some snow showers Fri-Sat

Aren’t we looking at hr 100-ish?