Terpeast

Popping in, at the hospital now. Just waiting for them to get the baby out. They did not treat the roads, so I drove us through the snow. Already had 1” on the ground and the roads were completely covered, and was coming down at a moderate clip. Everything was white. But we made it, and so did the surgeon. As soon as the WWA was cancelled over Loudoun county, that band came up and just sat over us.

34/21

My bad, that was the 18z NAM 3k. Was on mobile and thought I clicked to HRRR but the screen somehow reset. I’ll edit my post.

If radar trends hold, yes

I just compared radar with the 18z 3k NAM sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track. May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Trending down, yes, but the thing is AAM forecasts have been biased too negative over the past 30 days. When correcting for that, AAM may be closer to neutral.

Not too familiar with cville microclimate but I'd worry about downsloping since the flow is basically east to west. Perhaps 1-1.5" is a safe bet for you. Just basing this on the HRRR and ignoring the NAM, which is about to get retired.

Yeah, its almost back to where 00z was, not quite as beefy but the northern extent is back up just north of the dc metro - and I'm looking at 1km radar not composite reflectivity. I wouldn't count us out yet. Just to clarify, my expectations are coating to 1" tops north of 66/50 up to 70

Low of 23.5

On the plus side, the -WPO should chip away at the negative PDO and maybe even set us up for end of month into January

Yeah, that alaska vortex needs to move norther or weaken. Otherwise, it won't let shortwaves dig enough for us to develop storms with enough gulf moisture.

Not only did gfs shift, it expanded its precip extent north. Lets keep this trend going.

We’re ahead of last year wrt PDO…

Are you talking about Jan 2024? From 3-5 days out they were progged to hit PA and ensembles only had us at an inch or less, then they shifted south to give us the max.