Terpeast

Probably not. Gfs moved the low from international falls to cleveland in one run.

Bringing this over here. Better place!

I checked EPS and AI EPS to try to challenge you on that assertion, but came up inconclusive. We do start out with a strong -NAO block but then it decays and retrogrades SW into Quebec as the system approaches. That’s not the problem in my opinion. The real issue is that the “undercutting” wave energy has trended weaker/flatter. If it’s less dynamic, we could end up too warm for snow, which may not really matter if its dry or low qpf anyway. I would prefer to see a stronger wave that will help keep us cold, or perhaps having a lead wave reinforce cold air for the follow up. Lots of moving parts…

With that depiction verbatim, I think the first wave will actually work better for us on the 13th. By the time the second one gets here, cold air might be leaving. Details will change and we will know soon enough which wave the models are really keying on for us.

Depends which models are putting up the goal posts. Imagine if the cutter was depicted by the AI Euro instead of the gfs. Cliff jumping galore

Just looked at gefs, and you’re right on that one. But 12z EPS doesn’t cut and is actually better for us than 0z or 6z. Still sticking with the undercutting the block idea, while 12z gefs links up ridging preventing the s/w from undercutting

you mean EPS? Or GEFS?

Yes, a weaker pv supports blocking. It doesn’t have to reverse for blocking to suddenly appear.

I think that scenario is less likely based on ensembles, they don’t really support the suppressed scenario. Agree timing is vital, 6z Euro AI ensembles show something similar to 0z EPS with undercutting energy under the block but ridge bridging happens immediately after passing us.

Good call. I’ll start. Focusing on 0z EPS. Next window of interest, s/w running into confluence thanks to 50/50 low: Keeping cold air in place: While area of low pressure stays to the south of us: And precip distribution looks good:

Incredible how close your numbers have been. You’ll probably beat last year, but I had 16.9” last winter and I’m at 12.8” so far. In 23-24 I had 13.2”

Max wind gust 41, lowest wind chill -1 It’s not just the numbers, it’s also the duration of this event that makes it stand out. Just took out the trash, and the wind really cuts through your bones. And I’m in a relatively protected area.

Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs.

Having the snowpack already in place made it look more of a wintry scene despite so little qpf

Proud of my home state but I’ve unfortunately been too far north for the best snows apart from Jan 25. One of those winters I guess