Terpeast

21 in Ashburn

Yeah that’s a big jump

Yes thats right, but it doesn’t mean phase 6 automatically means warm in the east. Usually when amplitude is strong, which isn’t the case now. Weak/cod 6 during -enso/-aam usually means cold in the east, but not always.

It’s a statistics term that doesn’t mean what the layperson thinks it does. In statistics, significance on a correlation plot doesn’t necessarily mean the relationship between two variables is strong or important. A significance of <5% means a p-value of <0.05 (>95% confidence level), not that the correlation is strong. Two different things.

CMC also goes into 6, while Euro stays in weak 7 (let's see what 12z says).

When I saw the weeklies this morning, it looked like we're losing the Jan 5-12 window, but Jan 12-19 (and later weeks) stayed cold. I was going to wait until 12z to say anything though.

He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster

That’s a folks worthy beat down!

Very, very encouraging 12z suite. They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.

I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)

I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.

Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z