Terpeast

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

Tough call for them. Take a little extra time to think it through

It’s been while since we’ve seen a legit CAD setup where we get a front end thump before flip with primary lows to the NW of us. Probably because Canada was torched the last few winters iirc. Now with Canada being cold, we may have a shot at a CAD event where it’s not just a cold rain for everyone east of the Alleghenies.

I was just thinking this. Max strip may verify slightly NW of what’s being modeled.

Beautiful. I’m gonna enjoy this one, until the next model shows zip for mby.

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows. Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

Indeed it does. Previous rgem runs had almost nothing. That said, you’re in a much better position than I am for this one.

One of the 4 features I’ve been talking about, the negative WPO, is starting to fade or weaken. I’m starting to think that with the extended -PNA through the rest of this month, the warmth is going to last past the new year. We still haw canada cold, mjo projected to return to into 7/8, and stratosphere activity (with a lag). With these still in the picture, cold may return around the second week of January. The PNA may also flip positive for the majority of next month as well.

Or just one day of 70 before strong fropa, succeeding a week of 50s

Yeah, not a terrible run for us snow wise. Not that it’ll verify (probably)

I'll take my 2.5" so that Balt & NW folks get their warning snows.

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.

I’ll take the euro. Will be checking the 500mb vort maps on each model to compare and see what we need to happen upstairs.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

Eastern Loudoun here. Perhaps a coating if lucky