Terpeast

Would you say that the PNA pushing positive despite the +WPO/Pacific marine heat wave is what's behind some of the suppressed storm tracks that gave Louisiana and Florida and SE VA double digit snows? That's just me visualizing the patterns in my head... but I haven't really looked at the PNA data (been heads down with MJO at work lately).

That’s my baby son’s due date…

And the north pacific pattern isn't permanent either. It'll change at some point, maybe back to what it was before the extreme long-duration negative PDO... or take a different form altogether. My wag is that the NE Pac might be next to get a long-duration marine heat wave (selfishly good for us weenies, but disastrous for many ecosystems and livelihoods up and down the western NA continent)

Agreed. As depicted, this is a mountains special, which isn't uncommon in November.

While their snowfall map was reasonable, I would have broadbrushed the 12-18" zone more evenly from the mountains all the way eastward to the beaches, and then cut the numbers by 70%. So basically 9-14" for the entire midatlantic outside of the higher elevations.

Wow, what a cell that came through. Driving rain, couldn’t see houses across the street, trees thrashing about. Better than most summer tstorms, and wild that its only 53 out. 1.62” so far

Not as familiar with their climo as I am for the MA, but I’d venture a guess towards 10-15”, 20+ north of metro

Here's my winter outlook. (more of the same...)

My outlook. May do Edition 2 if things change in November. Or maybe not.

Not a whole lot has changed this month, so I decided to go ahead and issue my outlook for this winter. I'll keep it brief and simple: Overall winter feel: Meh, but not full-on blowtorch. Cool ENSO/weak basin-wide Nina coupled with -QBO Strong -PDO trying to turn the corner but not quite getting there -IOD bracketing MJO activity to phases 3-7 with limited 8-1-2 activity More weak troughing east of Japan pushing N. Pac High east into GOA (this helps us) Mostly -PNA, but with some +PNA episodes with plenty of Canadian cold air to tap into Weakly +NAO on the means with at least 2 or 3 bonafide -AO/-NAO blocking episodes Snowfall guess: 9-11" for the forum, maybe a few inches more for CAPE and northward of him Predicted mean DJF NH Pattern based on listed analogs (2021-22 weighted twice): SST changes last 15 days: Extrapolating cool SST/troughing east of Japan while warm blob pushes to the east. Cool area in GOA probably will not last. Atlantic pattern seems neutral towards NAO bias, but increased risk of SE ridge linkage with -NAO. Temp and Precip DJF Maps: Warmer and drier across the SE. Mild East Coast, but not torchy, plenty of cold air to tap into, but timing and SE ridge linkage will be an issue to contend with at times. Rockies, Upper MW, Great Lakes, and non-coastal SNE and all of NNE are poised to have a great winter.

That’s one of my top analogs, too. Another one high on the list is 2017-18

Euro and CMC have drastically different solutions than gfs. They both spin up a low in the upper OHV and then meanders north, giving us the likes of severe rather than a coastal.

32 this morning, first freeze

Yes. Too soon. But we saw the other day where cold novembers tend to be a better omen for overall winter seasons in cool enso years. OTOH, we’ve had 3 BN months in a row. Have we ever had 6-7 straight BN months in a warming climate, especially through the cold season? It could go either way. Cold nov/dec = decent winter… or torch-uary. I’ll make my call in a week or so, but still not sure which way I’m gonna go.

It’s clear how northern stream interaction screws us here. Happens more often than not in a nina