Terpeast

Euro great run! Now I suggest resting up tonight and tomorrow as much as you can, because we won’t be getting much sleep tomorrow night through Monday.

Now its only about 50 miles off from the other models. Which isn’t much.

That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet)

Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night

H5 low closes off again

Precip shield more robust for everyone here

Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too edit: 3k thermals also a touch cooler at hrs 30-32

Were they expecting to start with freezing rain and then later change over to snow?

Now this is where I see us mixing, but in the end it shouldn’t matter much because rates are so light then

Closed low at 500. If it passes over us, watch out

HRRR shows quite the thump. Hopefully its thermals are correct and I turn out to be too conservative DC south

First call: I’m in favor of the northern group of models and not really buying into the foot plus snows around EZF, nor am I buying the weird “dry slot” in the WAA portion of the storm. Even though confluence is very strong and we have a cold antecedent airmass, this is a very dynamic system with a powerful 70kt low level jet. We’ll see dual banding with 850 and 700 fgen, with the former along i-66 (give or take) and the latter between i-70 and the M/D line. Mix line likely to reach DC, and sleet/fzdz may even occur as far north as i-70 WHEN rates lighten up (heavier rates will be snow). Greatest uncertainty is whether a coastal gets going in time for us to get an extra few inches. In my first call, I say it will. My snowfall forecast (east of blue ridge): South of CHO - EZF - La Plata line: 1-3” heavy mix Delmarva South of Salisbury: 3-5” Delmarva North of Salisbury: 5-10”++ EZF north to I-66: 3-6” mix Between I-66 and I-70: 5-10” with some sleet/fzdz Between I-70 and M/D line: 6-12” all snow I reserve my right to make a final call when I see the need to make changes. P.S. Beltway DC metro? 4-7” with some mix

And there it is. Models are converging

Didn’t even get half an inch, and there is still some patchy snow otg. It’s cold. 27 now, wind chill 14

I’m thinking GFS is trying to find a compromise. This might be it