Terpeast

Low of 16.7

Similar thoughts. We’ll probably lose the first week of Jan, but second week may get more interesting with tracking threats.

This December hasn’t been too shabby in general, though some were unlucky for their back yards. I tend to agree that a ratter is an extremely unlikely scenario.

Seeing lots of CAD setups in this set. Maybe we can sneak in a wintry mix event before new years

22 F, feels like 13, little if any melting. Frozen inch everywhere

Objectively, this was a 4” storm for most of NYC. I don’t think that if cpk gets 3.9” then the winter is an auto fail by this standard. Just as 4.1” doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a 50” blockbuster.

The models have been biasing the PNA too low, so it may only end up being -2sd at the lowest this month. Also saw from GaWx that if Dec averages -pna, Jan tends to flip to +pna at least by the second half of the month. The bias corrected PNA forecasts trending to neutral by new years.

I’m starting to wonder if the mesos have a bias for more qpf in the 24 hours leading up to the event. We know the nam does this, but do other mesos have that same bias? I think the HRRR was onto something with the local minima over Loudoun.

I would have done better had I stuck to my initial forecast. It does look like my thoughts on the max strip from MoCo through SE PA verified warning criteria, but busted for the dmv. Some in the dmv were lucky enough to break an inch, and that would have verified on the low end. Still calling it a bust because precip came a bit early and temps took a while to catch up, and that hurt us from the start. Had it been an hour or so in our favor, we would have added another inch everywhere here. 4” would have been greedy, but a general 1-3” call would have been achieved if the precip band was an hour later. These things come down to luck and timing as always. Glad those to the NE got theirs, though!

12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” Total: 2.5”

Ended up with 1.0”

At least everything is white. Pretty with the xmas lights!

I was at 33 at 7 pm, then went up to 37 and once precip started back down to 33 and just now 32 as the back edge nears. The 4 degree rise can be attributed to the pooling of warmer air ahead of the front, kind of like the burst of temps before summer tstorms arrive. You should do much better over there, CAPE.

We all thought the rates would overcome, but it seems warm air pooled just ahead of the arctic front, making it a bigger issue for the dmv. North to fdk and along i-70 seem to be doing fine though.

Maybe an hour till back edge clears mby. Close to an inch