Terpeast

I'll take my 2.5" so that Balt & NW folks get their warning snows.

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.

I’ll take the euro. Will be checking the 500mb vort maps on each model to compare and see what we need to happen upstairs.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

Eastern Loudoun here. Perhaps a coating if lucky

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out.

Crazy how that came true a month out (albeit with smaller amounts)

I’ll take a blend of euro and gfs for mby

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further.

It was my first winter back in the area since 2016, and that jan blizzard was still fresh in mind when I was telling my wife what to expect from the winters here. Maybe I jinxed it

Funnily enough, the last time we had a really cold xmas was in dec 2022. Torchapalooza afterward. So if there is going to be a torch, I’ll take one before prime climo.

You’re not the only one

Lots of cold air lurking just up north. This warm up won’t last long. Unfortunately it may happen right at xmas

As I said in the MA forum yesterday, it won’t take much to shift that wpac warm pool slightly east to favor MJO 7-8 instead of 4-6. MJO 7 has sometimes shown to be a precursor to our biggest storms. And while the warm up is getting more aggressive on the models, my overall thoughts have not changed about 1) Neg WPO, 2) cold air source in Canada, 2) MJO waves into 7 and 8, and 4) increased chance of blocking due to stratosphere activity. These will increase the likelihood of a cold January moreso than a warm one.