Terpeast

He’ll stay up for 0z that’ll give us only 10” and call it a disaster

That’s a folks worthy beat down!

Very, very encouraging 12z suite. They are all taking shots at us in the second week of Jan. All it takes is one to hit.

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly.

I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)

I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.

Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet.

Gefs 18z a bit better than 12z, more like 06z

The 18z gfs wasn’t that bad. A “disaster” run would be a torch with 5 to 10 C 850s with a constant stream of western cutters. This one always had the boundary close or just south of us with some shots at us. A couple of those shots were a bit warm, but at that range, it wouldn’t take much at all. 500s look good.

All ensembles slowly build a +PNA ridge between 240-360 hrs. AK vortex quickly fades and retros west

I echo this sentiment. Lots of good analysis in here.

We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026

Hopefully it’ll improve the mood in their subforum.

I’ll let Ji handle this one