Terpeast

18z already in? I don’t see it

We’re not out of this yet.

may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.

Thought it’d be today, but…

Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

True, and euro has a bigger difference. Very low confidence situation, but if I were a betting man, I think GFS will eventually cave to Euro

GFS and Euro suites are going in opposite directions. Just checked CMC to see if we have a tiebreaker, but it's too waffly.

Funny but true

Reached a low of 6

Next window of interest feb 5-7

Agreed

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

Not a good sign if the Euro shifted away. Still giving it a day or so, though. With such a delicate setup and lots of moving parts, a lot can happen in shorter lead times.