Terpeast
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About Terpeast
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The fact that the CFS caught it early lends more credibility to that model.
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Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range…
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Extended GEFS & EPS are very different after around dec 15 in handling the MJO, which will likely have implications for late Dec even early Jan.
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GEFS and EPS while in lockstep with the mid-month moderation, they diverge because EPS wants to maintain -EPO the rest of the month and keep cold air nearby, while the GFS flattens the Alaska ridge a bit giving NW US/SW Canada less cold.
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Kill off the bugs early. Never a bad thing.
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I think extra variability will be the story of this winter. For now, the warm pool via MJO 5-6 is starting to exert its influence, but as I’ve been saying for almost a month now, the period I’m watching is when the MJO completes its pass through 6 entering 7/8/1 and the +AAM comes back at the same time. Still estimate that to be late Dec - early Jan, but sometimes models rush a pattern change, so it could be after the New Year. I could be wrong about the specifics, but again I think we’re going to see more variability.
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Low of 25
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Yeah, the models have been pretty shaky and I think thats going to be the story of the entire winter.
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Thought the strat PV is staying strong for the foreseeable future. Got any new data on that? And a strat warm is no guarantee of a cold outbreak here. It could spill to the other side or to Europe. We better hope that EPO stays negative if we get a strat warm.
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Carver’s Gap just posted euro weeklies in the TN forum. Not a lot to complain about…
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11/21: T (brief graupel) 11/22: T (non accum snow showers that lasted a few hours) 12/1: T (snow shower that briefly dusted)
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Light snow. Finally! Car top starting to get dusted.
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Commanders are so back
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Still nothing. Don’t think it’ll happen. Rt 15 looks like a wall
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Nothing yet in Ashburn, hoping this band pushes east of 15
