Terpeast

We don’t need a huge shift west. Just a small one.

A lot of moving parts and plenty of atmosphere to go through. A lot can still change yet

Needed to split that energy between midwest and nova scotia sooner

Now i’m liking 12z better

Trying to close off at 117

Taller pna ridge, heights off the EC a bit heigher

On 87, i like the ns wave better

Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet

But there seems to be more of a “connection” with the energy over nova scotia, which may not be what we want. But it could be nothing

This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.

Oh definitely. It's a high risk high reward one. Most likely we get little or nothing, but a flush hit? Oh boy

Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.

The key thing to watch on the Euro for the next runs is we need the 500mb s/w to dig WEST over Minnesota at valid time 00z Jan 30. The 12z euro didn't dig that as far west as 6z did, and hence the result. So when watching for trends, watch the 500mb vorticity over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/upper lakes.

So as we can see, there are 3 main scenarios/clusters - 1) way OTS fish storms, no one gets anything except maybe cape cod gets clipped, 2) storm tracks from OBX NNE with some tucks/scrapers, 3) miller B esque storms bombing out too late for us.

If anything, 12z EPS is similar to 0z.