Terpeast

Actually, EPS has been catching up with MJO verification in the last week or so. It did horribly when it was in phase 6, but much better once we crossed into 7.

AIFS ensembles have also been performing well with the polar domain's 500mb patterns, and both it and EPS have been trending less positive with the AO in recent runs. Otoh, GEFS has been verifying better with the MJO. Something to watch for.

Yeah, if it rockets through the cold phases, it won't do anything for us. A slow crawl hugging COD would extend cold risk for us.

It looks like GEFS is trying to loop back into 7/8 after its u-turn into 6. Hovmollers shows this as well.

Small bit of good news - cold is overperforming. For the midwest storm, their forecasters shifted their maps a tick south.

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe I’m bailing too early on 12/2 but I’m not feeling a snowy outcome for I-95. It’s too early in the season, and the antecedent cold air is really not *that* cold. Most likely outcome is mainly rain maybe brief mixing along I-95 and a couple inches far NW. I do think its great we are tracking two threats early on. That alone is a promising sign for this winter. I just don’t think it’s a hit for us this time. Maybe 12/6 hits instead. Who knows at this point. Again, like I said, I’m willing to eat my shoe if I’m wrong.

We’re just not in a climatologically favorable time and the models did not go in a direction I wanted to see today. Even with deamp, they may just get weaker but not colder. If I end up wrong and it snows, I’ll eat my shoe.

The trend is not our friend. I’m calling it a wrap for 12/2.

I wouldn’t read too much into the 6th because I’ve noticed that the gfs (and other models) sometimes “copy” what the preceding system did before its details are even fully resolved.

Makes sense. iirc the deamplification trend usually starts at 3-4 days out, no? otoh, the high moved way off to the east and we need it to stay to the north of us.

Yeah I don’t like the less confluence part either. Looks more like 6z

You just said my quiet thought out loud. The 12z gfs took a step closer to euro compared to 0z, so we’ll see if this is the start of a trend.

Models want to add more ridging across the polar domain. This may be the early effects of the recent SSW and if well timed with the next mjo 8 wave, this could set us up nicely for late dec - early jan. Still expecting a mid month relaxation where we warm up for a week or so.

Yeah, according to hovmollers the models are trending towards weaker forcing at 6/7 after Dec 7. Between now and Dec 7, we have a clean mjo 8 pass. Then weak forcing reappears at 6/7, which is strongest with gefs. But even the gefs begins to propagate that eastward after Dec 7-10. So we may yet get another mjo 8 pass soon afterward. MC ssts also have been cooling recently:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!