Terpeast

I take it to mean that 97-98 and 82-83 are your best analogs? I'd love to add 65-66 because of the PDO state, but it was from a long time ago...

Keep coming here more often.

Coin flip tbh. Might as well!

2 things can be true. A winter could be warm and rainy, and it could also have a blizzard.

Look forward to seeing your project when it’s done! if you’re willing to share.

Yeah it’s been rising quite a bit. Neutral-ish now

Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east.

Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

Yeah not great, but still a higher than normal chance for the big one

East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates

For the first time in months, I was able to cut the grass without melting. But still a bit sticky

NMME DJF outlook from the new england thread (no surprises):

Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point the boom/mid/bust split is 19/16/16

So basically equal chances of boom, bust, or mid