Terpeast

yeah, colder than 6z

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side.

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm.

Yeah, its like we have three different camps instead of the usual two

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op.

Wow, I didn't know that. From his writing I assumed he was in college or just past that. @bncho You've got a bright future, kid. Keep it up, whatever you're doing.

gfs and euro still worlds apart for Sunday. We need those recon flights yesterday haha

Fringed

No there isn’t. I was looking at 12z

Some maps I look at are for commercial use and can’t share publicly

El nino during a solar min? Not trying to speak for Chuck…

EPS has a mean of 6-8” for the dmv, at least double that of gefs

Not sure which storm you were talking about specifically, but there was one coastal storm in feb 2023 that dropped 1.3” qpf imby and more in other places. Temps were 37-40. I’ve wondered if we copied and pasted that storm onto the 60s-80s winters, it would have been 13”+ I’ll add that after last winter and this December, I feel a lot better about future winter prospects compared to how I felt through 22-23 and 23-24. Those two winters were just plain ugly temp wise, but we’ve been getting colder temps so that hasn’t been the issue as much as dryness and the lack of STJ moisture.

Ensemble support, too.

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).