Terpeast

Yeah i gotcha, I don’t like changing my forecasts too much. Maybe once after an initial call, but that’s it

This will be my last one

My updated forecast and final call (Note BR and cacotins can be double my numbers)

36.9 as of 5:15p in ashburn

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.

If 0.4” qpf is correct for mby, thats a solid 3”+ which I think is the boom scenario. Very achievable though

Just now there is. Eastern Loudoun as well

Yeah anyone east of the BR is in the game, just the vibe changed when the models shifted main band NW, which isn’t surprising to see.

39 here, underperforming temp forecast (it was supposed to be 45)

Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ.

Yeah with 1”/hr rates it won’t take long to clear 4” NE of balt

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.

It still gives me about 1.5” imby, so if that’s the “worst” model, I’ll take. Happy to see balt corridor get the jack this time though