Terpeast

Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs.

Having the snowpack already in place made it look more of a wintry scene despite so little qpf

Proud of my home state but I’ve unfortunately been too far north for the best snows apart from Jan 25. One of those winters I guess

Been years since I’ve had this, but so damn good

12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” 1/17: 0.3” 1/25: 9.5” (5.5 sn 4.0 ip) 2/6: 0.3” Total: 12.8”

Overperformed relative to my expectations. 0.3”. Just played outside with my daughter

Enough to call it 0.1”

Light snow finally

Nothing. Band split apart and went around me

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar storm track as the Jan 25 one. Not saying same results exactly, but more of a general idea where it tracks towards the TVA/OHV region with gulf moisture feed, and then coastal transfer. Obviously a further south track across TVA then across S VA would yield better results for our backyards.

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now.

Thats been the theme for 6+ months now

If I wanted to troll the forum, I would post this: Oh wait... (its an op run 10 days away, so don't take it too seriously)

I wondered the same thing when I saw my temp at 42