Upton liking Southern CT for tornado development.
A line of thunderstorms entering N central PA is fcst to weaken by CAM`s as it moves east into the Appalachians, followed by a new line of storms developing this afternoon over ern PA and central NY and moving SE into the area. Expect this line to move through from about 17Z-23Z, crossing the NYC metro area between 19Z-21Z. Main threat from these storms will be damaging winds via large MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg per NAM, momentum transfer of 40-kt mid level flow from aloft, also via steep low level lapse rates and inverted-V soundings. There is also a low- end tornado threat inland, more so across southern CT where models show potential for enhanced lift beneath the right entrance region of an upper jet streak to the north, while hodographs show veering low level profiles supportive of rotating storms during the afternoon, and where low level vorticity could be locally enhanced via channeling of sfc wind up river valleys and via possible sea breeze interaction closer to the CT coastline.