Calderon

I think that was the original poster's point.  A single violent tornado doesn't verify a High risk - many tornadoes do.  We've had many tornadoes today, hence high risk verified.

I think what a lot of us (myself included) forget is that tornado probabilities in SPC outlooks reflect confidence in a tornado outbreak.  They are not direct forecasts of violent tornadoes.  A smaller outbreak that verifies a high risk, and that will confidently occur, warrants a 45% tornado threat.  Another larger outbreak, but with greater uncertainty from the forecasting perspective, might warrant 15% or 30%.  Just because the second outbreak was bigger than the first doesn't mean the forecast was wrong - it just means that there was more uncertainty leading up to the big outbreak, compared to the smaller outbreak.   We've likely had a several long tracked strong tornadoes today which fits well well with the forecast.

In other words, tornado % (i.e, 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%) in the forecast doesn't necessarily correlate with outbreak size.  It correlates with confidence leading up to the outbreak.

Ah, I see those now.  Just been a long day of refreshing twitter, this page, discord, and watching streams.  Haha.

 

I feel like we only need one big cell to wind up and drop a monster and it takes the event from "very solid outbreak" to "a historic day".

Well yeah, but 1 violent tornado won’t verify a high risk.

Clanton was missed earlier but this may hit them head on, or at least nail the exit where Peach Park is.

Is that even warned yet? 

No, as DDC would say.

Oh look, a supercell going absolutely bonkers in eastern Tuscaloosa County. Color me shocked.


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The cyclic Selma supercell that likely produced at least 4 tornadoes is meeting its fate in the mountains east of Sylacauga.


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The cyclic supercell that started near Selma has a new tornado down in central Coosa County, near Weogufka.

Likely about to get a sizeable tornado NW of Birmingham if it's not down just yet. Velocity continues to strengthen & tighten. 

EDIT: Confirmed as of 1426 CDT.

Just now, Cartier God said:

CC drop directly southwest of Moundville, AL

That'll head up towards the eastern side of Tuscaloosa.

Quote

he National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Walker County in central Alabama...
  Northwestern Jefferson County in central Alabama...

* Until 315 PM CDT.
    
* At 214 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Gorgas Steam Plant, or 13 miles southwest of Dora,
  moving northeast at 30 mph.
 

This'll pass through a notorious tornado corridor in northern Birmingham Metro. 

2 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

https://www.facebook.com/AlabamaNewsNetwork/videos/802322387296625/

 

Demopolis tornado live

Multiple vortex that just barely missed the city by less than 3 miles, thankfully.

Tornado east of Clanton is occluding, new circulation rapidly intensifying to the SE. This area is incredibly rural with few, if any, structures for the new several miles. Sylacauga is in the line in a little over a half hour.

27 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Watching that one. I always focus on the lonely duckling away from all the other storms. It's in a good spot. 

It's velocity now east of I-65 is increasing rapidly with each scan. Likely large tornado continues. New CC drop becoming very prevalent. 

Confirmed tornado SW of Demopolis, per CC drop. Headed right at the regional town in rural western AL.

I wish AL state troopers would block SB traffic at Clanton & NB traffic at US 31 near Pine Level on I-65 and let this beast of a cell cross, but they most likely will not.

Tornado is occluding & we're watching handoff again on it to the SE. 

Large tornado confirmed over Billingsley, AL, per spotters.

2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

Destroyed chicken houses, so that's at least EF1 to lower-end EF2 depending on construction.

Confirmed tornado just SE of Epes, AL.

Very large wall cloud, so far, confirmed east of Livingston, AL.

Tornado in Autauga County is occluding and likely has lifted. New circulation developing to the SE of it. 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Absolutely classic look to this storm. Hopefully it avoids major population centers 

Thankfully most of Autauga & Chilton Counties are quite rural with most of these towns listed are not even incorporated, more like crossroads communities. That said, not diminishing the threat because it'll eventually cross I-65 south of Clanton near Verbena. 

Tornado confirmed with CC drop intensifying, best viewed from MXX radar versus BMX at this time.

Also, that polygon, in my opinion, for Autauga County is angled too far south versus north given current storm motion.

CC drop on Selma cell just to east of town now.

I would also really watch the cell south of York, AL in Sumter County with it being both by itself and on a perfect trajectory for Birmingham in a couple hours if it maintains. 

Selma cell has a very intense BWER also. It could drop at any moment, if it already hasn't.