adelphi_sky

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

SO... 0-8 inches are possible

I'm going to go conservative. I think we get 8 inches.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I also like that it is on a holiday so we can enjoy it without worrying about work! 

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don’t know why either.  I woke up and things looked great at 6z.  I don’t get all the fuss and worry. 

Woke up to a nice little surprise. A white dusting. I am keeping hope alive. Clicking my heels three times because I believe. I knew the strip of qpf would fill in. 

Radar looks nice. Stuff is moving fast from the west. Hope we can get another coating. I see yellows. 

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who else is wishing the blues connect though DC? Asking for a friend. Hope that is the trend. 

I like this trend. Nice snowpack then Vodka cold.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go...GFS time.  Where does the wheel fall on this time.

Black 21.

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

urban cold island effect

If that -1 verifies, I'll definitely wake my son up and take a shot with him and the temp. He's stoked about next week's cold. He wants to do all kinds of experiments. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it will be fun watching the nervous breakdowns some are going to have if they live and die with each model run over the next few days! 

I think the brutal cold will offer solace. I'm equally excited about that. 

17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is quite painful to look at! LOL! @Ji - The too far north, south, east, west statement comes to mind! LOL! 

 

Wow! Atlanta would be paralyzed. 

40 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

Raleigh, NC is -15 while we're 1. That sounds about right. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

I thought of a nice LLM project where we take all the data from this forum over the last ten years and ask it some questions. I'm sure the answers would be remarkable. lol

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Send snow maps.

God I wish this was 48 hours away. 

Salted sidewalks caved after the roads. Still snowing. Snow on snow complete.

Roads caved. Cars white. I'm satisfied. 

Let the radar hallucinations begin!

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

First returns visible to our southwest on Sterling's radar.

Let's go! Woo hoo!

I still think we get enough to whiten things up. I'm keeping hope alive. 2-3 for me. 

12 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

I’ll put ya on something really good. Take a chocolate edible and drop it in some hot coco. 

I'll stick to whiskey. I ate someone's edible chocolate brownie and my brain started vibrating and left my body for about an hour. lol 

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would absolutely love to see high temperatures kept below 25 today. It's been years since I've experienced that. Cold, dry, grey winter days are delightful. 

Hot chocolate infused with peanut butter flavored whiskey tastes better on days like that.

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Of course the NAM is juiced. This hobby literally makes me want to twist my head off.

It's great to be alive!

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Don’t see this everyday 

I have a gut feeling we'll over-perform. Sucks that we miss out on coast-to-coast winter advisories. 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember in 87 in NJ leaving school during one of those snowstorms when 2-3" had already fallen and it was coming down like a blizzard...took an hour to get home and I lived a mile away.  Remember another storm where I was waiting an hour for the bus in like 6" of snow and it took almost until lunch to get to school then then took 2 hours to get home that night after about 10" total fell.  We did get a 2 hour delay the next day!  

High school in northern VA I remember several times in 1994 waiting for a bus in ice, one time I waited over an hour and my father told me to just come in and forget it.  I don't think the bus ever came.  A storm in December 1996 waiting in 2" of snow.  

I have no idea which is the right way, but we definitely got softer.  When I was a kid school was cancelled for weather when it was just not possible to get there, and often they didn't cancel when I couldn't get there lol.  Probably somewhere between that and now when they cancel for some snowshowers was a happy medium.  

TBH though, we do evolve. There were a lot of things done decades ago that were acceptable that we look back on and can see why we don't do those things anymore. I'm sure there were a lot more accidents and deaths back then too which probably drives our actions today. I'm sure there is data somewhere that has suggested we change how we handle weather. I'm sure insurance companies would love to sit down and chat about risk. lol

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

When did society become so soft?  I mean it should be up to the parents... if they feel like a dust of snow is too much, they dont bring them.  

Thank our country's litigious society. If parents are forced to come in to register and one family gets into a bad accident on a patch of ice, well..... Even if there is no lawsuit, that's just bad for the program. 

Also, school systems would rather err on the side of caution than to get calls about some injury from some kid slipping on ice or children stranded somewhere on that one road that hasn't been cleared 100%.

10 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

 

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hoping that the late January period might produce a significant winter storm.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)?    

Here’s my own best submission.  

 

Winter Storm Event Classification: 

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful 

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate 

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Extreme 

Cat 5……24+”……….Historic

Thoughts?  

At this point in our recent climo, anything over 12" would be historical. On this board, I think anything over 18" would be Biblical. Major would be 6-12. I got close to 10" and my school system has been out for 4 days. I'd call that major. You would also have to factor in the cold I guess. How long does the snow hang around to impact an area.