adelphi_sky

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Lowlands are from the fall line to the Chesapeake Bay. The eastern shore is the flatlands.

Where are the shadowlands? 

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Was in the locker room after my workout this morning and this one teacher guy was bragging to another dude about how they were probably gonna call off local schools due to 15-18" of snow midweek.  The other guy said he just heard a dusting to 2".  First guy was in disbelief.  

I kept quiet to myself, I imagine sort of like a former POW does when he overhears two guys bellyaching about having to cut their lawns on Saturday.  

I have a teacher friend who loaded up on snacks for the storm. Going to tell her to prepare to go to work all week. 

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Too early for me to grade the winter here with March still looming.  But to date it’s been another lackluster season.  I have about an inch more of snow than last year.  About 60% of climo.
I have enjoyed the consistent cold weather, but paying the electric bill has taken some of the fun out of that.  Some onion snow would certainly be welcome before March Madness and the start of baseball season.

Apparently if we are cold, we're dry and it snows to the south of us. When we're at normal temps, we get better chances of snow but battle mixing. When we have warm winters, it's rain and nothing. 

Just now, 87storms said:

Spring sounds majestic rn.

We failed last spring in terms of thunderstorms. I don't recall very many severe events last spring.

14 minutes ago, Amped said:

Congrats Lake Ontario snowband.

Huntsville, AL will get more snow than Boston on that run. 

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If the models bring this storm back it will be by far the most unhinged thing they’ve ever done. 

It's not too late to get at least 6". I've experienced Mets having to up their totals DURING a storm. Models could say 0 and you end up with 3. 

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You’re talking about the same entity that can’t produce hands correctly.

Exactly. I have become increasingly frustrated with that feature. Just ask it to draw a poster with words on it.   AI for weather is a great idea, but I still think we're at least a decade away from it leading the pack in accurate weather prediction. 

I think a YOLO thread is refreshing. Throwing caution to the wind. Riding that train right on off the tracks. 

50 mile shift to get a foot of snow to DC with 100 hours to go.  We can do it.

ICON is better than its 12z run.  More precip up to us.

So the multi million dollar PS5 models are confused but the IntelliVision 1983 model has the right idea.   I’m good with this 

Tennis bubble light are swinging. Kids getting spooked. 6 year old said is this the snow storm.


.

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Heavy wind out here right now. Serious front coming through. 

 

Hmmmmm. Son has a tennis class in a tennis bubble in 30 minutes. Hope the winds aren't too strong. Should be an interesting class. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So it’s scary that I’m on team JB.  But can’t deny he just said what I’ve been saying. lol. Ugh 

One point I’d contest is 95 Blizzard. That’s typical JB hype. The best h5 analogs I found were secs-MECS level events. The h5 track is actually NW of ideal for those 1983, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2016 type storms.  It’s also not oriented like those were. But the weird part is the reason most of the comp storms I saw weren’t bigger along 95 was mixing issues not a miss south. lol. But it’s most definitely not similar to any “miss to our southeast” analog comp.  

It's good to find confirmation in your thoughts. Would be nice if LWX chimed in with the same thoughts. 

2 minutes ago, diatae said:

Blue skies and a breezy 59.

Same here. I told my son to go out for a run and to layer up. Then I looked that the temp and was like, never mind. You're good. lol

1 minute ago, Wxtrix said:

thundering here.

Looks like I may get clipped by the tail end of that line. WE'll see.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Respectfully I didn’t mean to be ambiguous. First of all in this setup some criticism is warranted. The models were pretty bad across the board regardless of outcome on this event.
 

But in general what I mean is this… we know we don’t have the ability to model the atmosphere completely correctly. We have not come close to completing that code. In some cases we know where we are lacking and write bias corrections into the math to try to compensate for our insufficient physics.   

So we have multiple model simulation tools like the euro gfs uk gem that all try their best to model the atmosphere. We have their ensembles where we run permutations to see a spread of likely errors.  Then we use all of them together holistically to try to clean clues to what’s happening. No one of them is meant to be a rip and read forecast.  If you look at each model run at long range only by itself they are next to useless.  If you take all of it together and look for trends and clues factoring in all the model evidence together they are more useful (still not perfect) at being one piece of making a forecast. 
 

Even then they shouldn’t be the whole piece. Look at the crusade I’m on right now where the models are spitting out results that don’t align with my expectations based on the larger pattern drivers so I’m skeptical of their output. You should factor that stuff in also!  Analog guidance and knowing your climo is part of the forecast puzzle as well. 

This is where machine learning can help. But the amount of weather data involved would require a HUGE learning model. It would also be interesting why we more often see snow on a model and wake up to no snow more often than we see no snow and wake up to a warning level event. I guess no precipitation is easier to forecast than none? 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does but it’s unusual for a closed low that far northwest of that amplitude to produce a wave that escapes south of us. There is a feedback to this. With a closed upper level low they far NW the surface should amplify enough to feedback with some height rises in front.  There is a reason there are no examples of a big SE VA snowstorm with this look.  None. Zero zip. 
 

on the other hand reliable upper level data only goes back so far. Maybe it’s a once a century type thing and we’re about to see the first instance of it. 

A once in a century rug pull. That sounds about right for the area. lol

23 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If this storm comes back I will call it the sign here now storm.

We have witnessed models trending better less than 24 hours before a storm. There's still room for progressive shifts in the right direction. We may not get the 20" but there's still time to hit that elusive 10" snow. Let's just hope that the best data gets injected into these models soon so there is a better picture. 

1 minute ago, WeatherQ said:

Looks like Millville, Ocean View, the DE/MD Beaches and the lower DelMarVa are gonna be the winners, eh? 

My son and I snow chased at Ocean City the last time they got a foot. We drove back to DC the morning after and there was no snow on the ground. Had fun though. Got a cheap hotel room with an atrium covered pool area.

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Still not a great trend since 12z yesterday, the southern stream looking flatter and more progressive. We need the opposite. 

I really appreciate these animations. It helps to see the progression and how each piece is interacting with each other and why. Helps to understand why the snow maps look the way they do.

2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

So ignore models showing storms 6 days out 

I'd make it 4 days out. lol

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Relax guys. Shifts like these are to be expected this far out. If you’re looking for a 20”+ HECS, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 I mean, what dreams may come. Right? 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Its 100% booze, ribeyes and snow. 

Congrats on the Palm. That's my birthday spot. I always get the 3lbs lobster though. 

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

But what does the CRAS  show?? Lol

Yeah. I almost forgot about that model.