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tavwtby

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Everything posted by tavwtby

  1. 15* with 18 sustained and 30 gust last hour...well after Wednesday I capped my area at 6-8", might verify that after all is said and done, most likely low end of that, but that'll still put me over 20" on the season with Feb and March to go, about avg I guess, nickle and dime..
  2. man I wish the precip field would expand west a tad, right on the edge of some decent snow growth, as it is looks like around 3.5-4" and sugar, vis has been at around 1/2sm for some time, let's tug this west and stall for a while...
  3. just on the fringes of something substantial here, approximate about 3-4 hard to gage with the wind...vis down but snow growth not great so this feels like 15 all over again for us out here, congrats out there in that meat! looks incredible
  4. vis has gone down considerably in the last 15 minutes, gotta say wasn't expecting this early, nice coating
  5. I think there's going to be a secondary band that sets up a bit west of the goods, just a gut feeling looking at the radar evolution, could be wrong, think more west trending continues to tick
  6. yeah, they were still cool though... I remember one that actually panned out, wanna say 07 maybe, hard to recall, Will or one of them would remember
  7. I'll take it! anything possible at this point, I mean one NAM run ain't going to sway everything here, need to see more, but definitely a step in the right direction for wor
  8. this afternoon AFD should be an interesting read based on that run... still holding slight optimism for wor folks to get at least double digits, don't care to jack.
  9. yeah that's what it was, I think I got 11 on both of them, which minus the Jan storm were the highlight of that winter, wasn't a bad one by any means..
  10. ALY.. middle approach solution, still given their likely outcome here is 7.0", that at least warrants a WWA, if not a warning, seeing all offices around have already hoisted them, we wait... During Friday night through Saturday night, a deep upper-level trough will become neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it approaches the East Coast. A favorable upper-level dual-jet structure will lead to the development and rapid intensification of a surface low off the East Coast as it tracks north to northeastward. There remains high confidence a coastal low will occur, but where it actually tracks remains uncertain. Latest model suite is split on the track with some guidance more intense and farther west (ECMWF/CMC) and others less intense and farther east (GFS/NAM). Only the CMC is west of the 40/70 benchmark at this time. Upon collaboration with WPC and surrounding offices, we continue to run a `middle approach` at this time with the higher snowfall totals south and east of Albany with little or no snowfall farther north and west. Regardless, a fairly `wide goalpost` of snowfall amounts are still possible. Cold, dry air north and west of this system will likely lead to a sharp gradient in snowfall as well. Winter weather headlines may be needed in later updates, but there was not enough confidence on any winter storm watches at this time.
  11. yeah same here... I kinda lost the monster for entire forum mentality yesterday, looked good for a while, still possible, but so is nothing I guess, not even a WWA here yet, at least last check...
  12. yeah I don't see much more than 6" wor with current guidance, just one of those, too far west for the goods, cutters like last one we were too far east, still managed about 5 before the rain began, so if we pull 5 from this here, we'll have close to 10" otg here.
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