Eduardo
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Everything posted by Eduardo
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Nice CTG lightning strike right over Manhattan just now. Pouring as well!
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I’m still waiting for last winter to start as well……
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Never seen anything like this. Manhattan smells like a campfire and the sky over it is an almost catoyant dark orange.
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I am not gonna complain. Would love to see some severe wx (which we only seem to get during the winter months now anyway), but I am loving the lack of humidity!
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Aside from driving blizzard conditions, this is some of the best weather for a late-night walk. If you’ve got a few mins to spare, do it!
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Some serious pingers outside my 47th-floor window in Manhattan!
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Was probably the particulates from the wildfires filtering the sunlight you were seeing.
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I’m traveling to Albany for work this week. Might be my only chance to see more than 1/2” of snow on the ground this winter. What a ratter of a season.
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Just walked through a Brooklyn neighborhood I haven’t visited since January 2014. Got some serious tundra nostalgia. Hoping we get locked into another pattern like that during my lifetime!
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I feel like it’s so late in the game that, at most, this’ll just mean that the weather is more spring-like now than it will be after the equinox (i.e., follow up our craptastic winter with a(nother) dreary, damp spring).
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See for me, 13–14 was closer to an A winter because of the entrenched cold. I’ll take slightly less snowfall if it sticks around for longer periods of time. The snowstorm with single-digit temps in January 2014 was a huge plus too.
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If it showed a cold flip, we’d discount it. But since it’s this ‘winter’ I’d bet money that it pans out.
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93–94 and 95–96 were great winters for different reasons. 93–94 came after a multi-year crap fest and had it all: sustained cold, snow, and even a true ice storm. 95–96 was just incredible because of the sheer amount of snowfall right down to the coast. I’m a bit of a retention snob though so, for me, the 13–14 and 14–15 stretches were even better than those. We saw one snowstorm (in early ‘14 I think) with temps in the single digits. There were some solid, almost tundra-like conditions that lasted weeks at a time. Waterways frozen, snow that just blew around from place to place and refused to melt, and weeks of single-digit lows. Been awhile since we’ve seen that kind of “deep winter” now. Would love another stretch like that!
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I live on Roosevelt Island and the December event did not give us a coating. We are still at 0.
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Impressive CTG strike followed by a loud clap of thunder over the East River just now. Peak severe season!
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Not at all! We should stay on the forum, both to commiserate and to continue learning from one-another. There is definitely much to be gained from refining our abilities to sniff out the warning signs of a crumby winter in advance and theorize about what might get us out of the snow slump we are in.
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I mean, lowest snowfall ever is always a low-probability outcome by default. I wouldn’t put money on it. But a true ratter of a winter is really looking likelier by the day.
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I fully feel your frustration. I too am a snow weenie at heart. But the LR guidance has consistently corrected towards warmer temps and a storm track through the Great Lakes since November. So, while we all can see some better-looking snapshots on the 15-day and it’s tempting to read significance into them, it’s kind of irrational to believe them right now. That learned skepticism is also what’ll shield us from disappointment later on (and provide a pleasant sense of surprise if things come into alignment for us for a period). I think the best we can do right now is cross our fingers and hope for a lucky event or two before climo starts working against us. After that, we need to look for some kind of catalyst to get us out of this seemingly-never ending Niña with its raging PAC jet/SE ridge pattern. I’m really just too much of a novice to know what that that catalyst might be though. Another major ENSO event? A volcanic event perhaps?
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I tend to agree, although a fleeting PNA might give us a window during peak climo where we can score even with stale PAC air.
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Ya just in time to make for a *cold, damp spring, right?
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Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t think things are that dire yet. Temp-wise, I think we’ll see more cold clusters like 13–14 and 14–15 even as long-term (i.e., 10- and 30-year) averages continue to rise. Snow-wise, it’s more about getting certain atmospheric variables to allign. That’ll happen at some point (likely for a string of winters) even as we continue warming overall. We’ve seen an anomalous number of 40”+ winters since 02–03 even during some of the warmer of those winters (with 09–10 perhaps being the most notable).
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This captures things perfectly IMO and I’d add that the screaming PAC jet is what has led to longer-range models being unable to sort things out over these past few years. Our failure to score in December despite a -4.0 AO, I think, really highlights the dominance of this feature. At some point, things will reshuffle and we’ll return to a more snow-lover-friendly background state (albeit amidst an increasingly warmer globe). That could take years, if history is any indication. Until then, we are just going to have to hope for some luck. But hanging on to hope that everything is just going to flip on a dime is just setting yourself up for disappointment at this point.
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Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow. Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond. I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter. Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one.
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December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations
Eduardo replied to NJwx85's topic in New York City Metro
Honestly, 4 inches of snow before Xmas would’ve been fine by me even if we slotted away much more. The continued snow drought (despite some decent blocking lately) is pretty depressing. -
Great post (as usual), Chris. Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore? (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?)
