Eduardo
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Everything posted by Eduardo
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Lol yes I completely forgot about the Feb torch that year. Early Jan 2018 storm remains near my all-time top storm list for the snow and wind!
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This is true, Chris. 2017-2018 was a cold one, so I dunno if it’d be 8 straight years of cold drought, but your point still stands. I wasn’t around for the 80s, but I remember the late 90s winters being mild and boring as well.
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I think that we may be in the middle of such a period again right now. I don’t know what it’s going to take to end it though. Seeing the models already moving the center of next week’s cold to our west is just a continuation of what we have seen the past few years and, unfortunately, doesn’t bode well for us winter weather lovers. Might be another year of “take what we can get.”
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Excellent post!! I love it! Maybe I’m just a battered weenie, but I have a hard time believing after these last few winters that the models aren’t just playing tricks on us. They’ve not done too well in that they’ve consistently forecasted cold in the medium and long range that didn’t pan out. Here is to hoping this year is different!
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I wouldn’t either. Probably closer to +1 to +3 tops. Not impossible to snow, but a steeper uphill battle for the City and coast. I think so too, although that won’t take much, given how the City came in with record low snowfall last year. In terms of snowfall, I don’t think it’ll be a “carbon copy.” But I have a hard time believing that we break the humdrum hemispheric pattern we’ve seen these past two years. Again, I cannot emphasize enough how thrilled I’d be to be dead wrong on all of this. Been aching for some real wintertime fun for too long now (esp a good ol fashioned holiday season snowstorm).
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Just a few examples, I suppose, but it appears this guy: And maybe this guy: But never this guy (and we love him for it) In fairness, typical Niño climo would mean that we’d have to wait for the second half to get anything meaningful anyway. So, whether you think it’s due to continuity from the past few craptastic winters or that we’ve broken that logjam with the current ENSO state, a boring, mild December is the more likely outcome here.
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I almost wonder if we need a basin-wide super Niño to meaningfully reshuffle things (December 2017 was great!). So tired of these boring winters. And yes I agree that maybe there is some potential for some fun later on in the winter. But the fact that so many seem willing—with good reason—to punt December kinda tells us where we are (and it’s not a happy place unless you dig seeing all the cold out west).
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Lol no. As my post said, based on the multi-year garbage Niña pattern we seem unable to escape. Full disclaimer: I’d be thrilled if I were wrong. But if I were a betting man, I’d be betting on continuity which, right now, doesn’t paint a pretty picture for us cold and snow lovers.
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I really hate to say it, but I can totally see this being the theme of the winter again. We seem to be unable to break this pattern these past few winters.
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I mean, that looks like a textbook Niño look, where Decembers are usually soupy anyway. Am I missing something?
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Yeah but then is it right to PAC puke? Or does is remain sustained? Would pay for another November 2014 at this point
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I can’t help but feel a bit dejected at how difficult is has become to sustain below-normal temperatures during our cold season. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but I have a hunch that, even if it won’t be quite as bad this upcoming winter as it was last winter (how could it be?), we winter weather lovers are gonna be fighting an uphill battle once again.
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@LibertyBell I love your contributions here, but the multi-quote feature is a beautiful thing.
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I am cool with this and will be encouraged if we see signs of blocking early on!
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Wow it had slowed down (relatively-speaking) on Roosevelt Island, but it suddenly went right back to insanity. What an event!
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Been thinking the same thing all weekend. Would be absolutely glorious to get a nice, ol fashioned long-duration snow event. Feels like forever since we’ve seen one!
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Sweet, elusive backlash….rains
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Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this? The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.
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Reminds me of Irene in 2011. Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC.
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I see this “mind of their own” trope often, but I don’t understand it. Don’t deeper cyclones tend to move more poleward? IIRC, Irma defied the models (biased toward that climatologically-favored outcome in their longer ranges) because an anomalously-robust ridge to her north forced her south of due west at one point. Not saying that can’t happen again, of course. But if it does, I do wonder if it’ll be because Lee to be has a “mind of his own.”
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I don’t think the EC becomes a possibility unless and until we see either: (1) south of due west motion; and/or (2) a center reformation to the south (unlikely, given the low shear environment). If any of these occur, then I’ll be interested in it as something more than a swell generator.
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100% this!! Usually, it’s the thunder that stirs me from my sleep. Never been woken up by lightning alone until last night!!
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First time in my life awakened by lightning and not thunder (and through closed shades to boot)! Excellent storm!
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Sitting in the city very skeptical. I’m hoping for something interesting, but I can’t help but feel like it’s all gonna fizzle.
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Heavy rain in Northport (LI)! Hardest I’ve seen it rain in awhile!
