Eduardo

Yeah I figured that, if it had ever happened, it would have been 2001-2002 or 2011-2012. Thanks Don!

I was gonna say that today was the first time walking home from work when it felt like a normal winter evening. Just out of curiosity (and sorry if this’s been answered) but has NYC ever gone a whole winter without temps dipping below 20 degrees?

March 2017 was the first thought I had as well. Might come down to how well that high to the north can serve us. But maybe—just maybe—we will have some luck on our side. Just so refreshing to actually have something to track! Here’s to hoping things break our way in the new year!

I was just thinking the same thing! Amazing how little time we have spent below freezing these past two winters. Felt like early spring walking through Manhattan today—and we’ve had so many days like this.

Welp….

You definitely telegraphed this back then! I distinctly remember thinking of that winter as having been saved by that Kara ridge!!

I agree with this, although as we get into January, it becomes more possible to sneak in an event with a marginal airmass. Something has to break our way at some point, right?….. Right?

Chris @bluewave is one of the most solid, knowledgeable, objective posters I’ve encountered in any forum. He was (correctly) super bullish on cold and snow from the time I first interacted with him (in 2009?) until the magic stopped a few years back. Since then, broadly-speaking, he’s been correct that we’d be in the doldrums until the PAC cooperates. Glad you’ve been dropping by here, @40/70 Benchmark. I enjoy reading your analysis as well!

I mean, if ever there was a time when the term was appropriate….. Did JB coin that term, btw?

Hahahaha. I mean, he did cross the Sound.

This is great! I also remember @jm1220 as one of the “OG’s” there as well. He was a Penn Stater with access to a premium AccuWx account we poors couldn’t afford, but he gave us glimpses into what they were thinking. Somehow, I snagged the name “SnowLover” on both the Bill Evan’s and TriState boards. Glad to see that you all are doing well!

It’s partly a matter of perspective. I agree that the ad hominem BS gets annoying (i.e., the reflexive weenie’ ing). But, depending on how you view it, the substantive debate between more informed posters can provide some really fertile ground for learning and developing your own ideas. The “weenie culture” has always been an important part of the fabric as well. I don’t think of myself as one, but I also don’t necessarily view is as a pejorative, especially when applied to members like @MJO812/metfan who seem to wear that label proudly. Like I’ve said before, this place wouldn’t be as fun without him.

Hahaha I don’t know if I’d go that far. That place wasn’t exactly devoid of bickering. There was someone named something like “hani345” who would occasionally (and I think inadvertently) ignite flame wars by saying things like “Bill I’m scared the wind is going to blow my house down.” But I do miss that board as well. I prob wouldn’t have been on TriState, Eastern, or here were it not for that community.

Nobody is saying that they “are always right” my man. They’ve contributed some quality, objective analysis over the years, and we’re onboard the snow train during the excellent stretch we saw from 2000-2018 or so. And, objectively-speaking, things just don’t look that great this month if, like me, you love cold and snow in NYC. Mean regression stanks. Sooner or later, we will break this terrible multi-year, Niña-esque state, but I’m afraid we’ve got a bit to go, unless as @brooklynwx99 thinks, the Niño gives us some room to run during the back half.

I mean, at least he’s out front about it. Place wouldn’t be as fun without him TBH.

Good post! Would love to luck our way into something. Worth keeping an eye on.

This is exactly the kind of stuff I come here for. Thanks Chris! Bolded sentences a perfectly-put and cut through a lot of the semantic noise that’s emerged lately.

Is this why they’ve been so unreliable over the past few years? I’ve just been reflexively disregarding them, but until today never really thought about the reason(s) why they weren’t worth trusting.

Tis the true stuff of this hobby we’ve all chosen.

This is how I remember it too. Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity. Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

Yeah I mean, who could disagree with the proposition that Niños are different than Niñas? And, to be clear, in terms of sensible weather, I am not expecting a carbon copy of last year—if for no other reason than that wall-to-wall shutouts like that are unusual. I am just expecting the MJO and Pacific to be the same flies in the ointment that they’ve been for the last few years now. But I do understand your point that the shift to a Niño this year could sufficiently reshuffle things enough in our favor (at least I think that’s your point—correct me if I have it wrong). I don’t see it playing out the same way, though I definitely hope to be proven wrong.

I think the debate (that’s been hashed and rehashed several times these past few days) is whether and how quickly the MJO rotates through our beloved 8-1-2. Though as a winter-weather lover, I wish I wasn’t, I’m in @bluewave’s camp that the LR models these past two or so years have tended to depict a favorable MJO only to break it down in the short term. @brooklynwx99has offered some good reasons why this year might be different than last (mostly ENSO-based, unless I’m misunderstanding), but so far I’m neither convinced nor excited. Continuity is weighty for me in this age of “stuck patterns.” Unless and until we see some sort of global shift in this Niña-esque setup, I have to assume that things are gonna remain pretty boring.

I think this is true, but only inspires minimal excitement, given how horrendous last winter was. For me, the hope is that the different ENSO state this year makes enough of a difference that blocky periods can deliver us something (unlike last year when all they did was trap the PAC puke over us). I really have low expectations on the whole here though. Until we break this multi-year humdrum pattern, I’ll log anything we get as a bonus.

Yes this! I’ll take a -NAO, esp in December (@bluewave would know better than me, but I think that bodes well for the ensuing months), but like we saw last Dec, it won’t mean much unless we get at least a little bit of PAC love.