Eduardo

Chris, what are our chances of becoming mired in the unfavorable MJO phases again this year given current SST configuration? Trends today look a tad less hopeless. IIRC, history shows that +AO December's tend not only to be less favorable for cold and snow, but they also tend to presage below normal snowfall for the entire winter...which makes sense since prolonged PAC air into the higher latitudes scours out our source region and erodes precious snowcover up there. We have to hope that the coming AO spike is muted and short-lived. Time will tell. Fingers are crossed!

Trends definitely are not looking good for the cold- and snow-lovers amongst us. The trauma from last year is still raw and, so far, this year bears an uncanny resemblance. Last year, I “closed the shades” after the first few days of December and never opened them back up. If the AO catapults to +4 or +5 in December, that’s going to be a pretty steep climb out of craptasm. At that point, we’d be banking on a SSWE which, as we saw last year, can fail to deliver the goods anyway (TBH, I feel like once the conversation focused on this, it’s often a pretty good indicator that we are toast). Hoping things turn around but, at this point, it’s hard to go against continuity of these repeating patterns.....

Like sandpaper looking at that image. Seems like a "wait-and-see"-type deal right now. I'll become more invested if we see a decent look up top materialize for an appreciable period in December. Usually that bodes well (as it did in 2013-14, for instance). If we are going to battle a SE ridge yet again this year, are we better-armed with a -EPO or a -NAO? IIRC, some SE ridging actually worked to our benefit during those magical -EPO winters of 13-14 and 14-15.....

LR models constantly pushed back the breakdown of that rocking -EPO pattern in 2013-14 just as they constantly pushed back the breakdown of last year’s mess. Hoping this year follows in 13-14’s footsteps and a “deep winter” like that sets in. Keep that icy arctic cold nearby and good things will happen for everyone!

If that is true, then what explains the spate of cold November's in recent years?

Hear hear! For similar reasons, I also "closed the shades" up here in early December last year and never opened them back up. And, like you, I also am disappointed over how much the discourse on here has devolved since the early EasternUsWx days (and before). I am not sure what accounts for it: whether it's part of a broader internet sniping culture, due to lax moderation, or something else. But your thread here bucks those trends magnificently, so I will continue to visit and chime in from time to time--mostly with questions for those of you more well-versed in the minutiae than me. BTW, I lived in DC while I was in law school from August 2010 thru May 2013 and the stars never aligned for a good storm while I was there. Your enthusiasm for this hobby is all the more admirable given the steep climo climb you face each year. With vivid recollection of what that was like, I always root for you all to cash in big!

Agreed here 100%! IIRC, during December 2017, we waited for a warm-up that never ended up materializing and (at least for us a bit further north), that ended up being a harbinger for the decent winter that followed. Contrast that with December 2018, where the writing was pretty much on the wall for what became a dud up here (where I finished with a single-digit seasonal snow total, most of which came from the November storm...ugly!). IMO, if we average a -AO in December, that bodes well for the entire EC generally. The possibility of a true -NAO emerging toward the beginning of December has me viewing the cliff from a respectable distance right now as well. Solid thread you all have here BTW. Hope you all don’t mind me visiting!

How, if at all, will Halong’s recurvature in the WPAC affect the pattern toward the mid and latter part of the month?

I don't mean to carpetbag my way in here and hijack your thread, but can you explain for me what's meant by "Wave 1" and "Wave 2?" I think I have a decent idea of what they mean, but I can probably use a primer. Great stuff in this thread!! :-)

This is cool stuff! My gut tells me the notion that November snow spoils the winter is a myth. But I think there may be something to the idea that the relaxations which follow wintry November's tend to cut into peak climate time as the pattern reloads. Maybe it'd be better to see it broken down by "date of next warning-level event following November snowfall?"

Wouldn't an early strat-warm actually work to our detriment? Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the best time for full-scale strat-warm's is around mid-winter or so in order to "keep the party going." Agreed though: Don't let that PV get too comfortable!

That's a beautiful progression advertised on the EPS. Hoping that we avoid a 2018-esque headfake. 2014-15 was one of my all-time favorite winters! Still a bit early, but I feel a tad more confident that this year turns out better than last year's MJO fail.

That’s an astonishing stat! Amazing how much September has felt like a summer month since 2010.

11/20

On the LIRR heading east through Nassau now. Sky is bright and sunny to the north, but looks eerie and chaotic to the south....

Very very little. Mostly some distant lightning off to the south and a few claps of thunder in SW Suffolk.

Probably too early to speculate, but I am hoping it calms down some before the winter. That raging PAC jet decimated our snow weenie dreams last year....

LOL. We did very well three weeks ago, so I cannot complain. I also think we'll see some action in a few hours. Crossing my fingers that it's halfway interesting. I find that we do better when storms move in from the north than the west, but we'll see. Definitely a good soaking coming regardless.

Deep rolling thunder shaking my house in SW Suffolk. Still not much in the way of rain or wind though.

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don. Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it. A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw. Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you. Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event?

To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail. But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it?

LOL. Poor guy. As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather. Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.