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Eduardo

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  1. Eduardo
    At first glance, I thought you had mistakenly copied and pasted the October 2020 map for the "snowier outcome" composite (which is a good thing!). Your accounting for Niño-like and Niña-like background states is sensible, but it leads me to wonder how much the usefulness of ENSO itself as a predictor might be breaking down (or at least shifting). Solid post, as always!
  2. Eduardo
    I was thinking the same thing this morning. Fellow coasties lamenting the fact that they're about to see a 6"+ snowstorm in mid December is baffling to me. Everybody in the tri-state will easily surpass @bluewave's magic 3" December snowfall total tonight and tomorrow and it looks like the month will finish with a solid -AO. That's all cause for celebration in my book, especially given how dismal things looked a few weeks back.
  3. Eduardo
    Lived there from 2010 to 2013. I can recall seeing snow three times the entire time and the highest total was 2 inches. Watching January 2011’s extravaganza from down there was sheer torture. We really have been spoiled up here the past decade. I’ll gladly take 6-10” here in the city. I’d welcome the icy glacier that’ll preserve the pack too!
  4. Eduardo
    I think it's all about the 50/50 low, right? If that slips east, then the high (no matter how robust) will follow.
  5. Eduardo
    Reminds me a bit of December 2009.
  6. Eduardo
    Great stuff, as always Chris. IIRC, some of those years managed to sneak in a colder Xmas. 2013 comes to mind, for example. Was my first Xmas back up here after three years of law school in DC and it felt nice to experience actual cold again.
  7. Eduardo
    GFS's evolution reminds me a bit of Dec. 2009. Didn't we get some eleventh-hour PNA love to make that one happen too?
  8. Eduardo
    Yesterday's 12z NAM kinda nailed this IIRC.
  9. Eduardo
    Even see some shades of white on the car tops in Brooklyn. I'll take it!
  10. Eduardo
    Yeah I can confirm first flakes here in Brooklyn Heights!
  11. Eduardo
    Minimal improvement on the PAC side can put us in the game as long as the ATL side cooperates. Even a decent WPO can inject some arctic air for the NAO to hold in place. Need to tamp that PAC jet down just a bit though. It's been a killer these past few years.
  12. Eduardo
    96-96 and 10-11 come to mind.
  13. Eduardo
    Full-on tundra! Not sure I'll see that again in my lifetime here. I took special care to cherish those winters.
  14. Eduardo
    As long as the PAC isn't total hot garbage, we can cash in with a decent ATL look (which'd be a welcome return after years of awfulness). That said, those PAC-dominated winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were among my favorites. The only time I've experienced single-digit snow in the tri-state area.
  15. Eduardo
    Yikes! That's pretty grotesque. Also kinda puts things in perspective seeing how bleak things looked at this time in 2014 as well though.
  16. Eduardo
    Some winters got cranking late. In 2014-2015, I remember we were all doom and gloom until mid January. Different (exceptional) animal, for sure but for the more hopeful among us....
  17. Eduardo
    I took special care not to take those winters for granted. I remember somebody posting a map at the time, which showed that the only below-normal anomalies were parked over us. At some point, that had to give. Over the next few decades, we'll get some great blocky winters. But given the warming base state, you have to think that they'll be fewer and further between the mehh's and ratters. Before anything else, we need to do something about that WPAC warm pool that's stalling the MJO in the unfavorable phases. What's it going to take though? Another extreme ENSO event?
  18. Eduardo
    Oh no I didn't take it that way either! I was only wondering if my fellow Lindy native had any insight as to why we always did well with winds. Sorry if that came across the wrong way.
  19. Eduardo
    I grew up in Lindenhurst and can confirm that, for some odd reason, we always seemed to perform well when it came to winds. No idea why though (guessing it's something geographical).
  20. Eduardo
    I forgot how close last December was to delivering. It's comforting to see a lid on the SE ridge mid-month, although you'd think the Niña would snap it back into place at some point (OTOH, I am still waiting for last year's anticipated Niño atmospheric response...). But a ridge pressing inland from the NATL won't do us much better in the snow department since it'll just push the storm track inland too. Man, the glory years really spoiled us. I still don't think we'll see another shutout year like last year, but these past few years have been a cruel reality check: It's difficult to get solid snows down to the coast!
  21. Eduardo
    Don't get me wrong, I'll take this all over the doom and gloom we thought awaited us last week. But the way I see it, as depicted, we would basically just be suppressing the torch for a time and could expect a snap-back at some point unless we can nudge some ATL or PAC ridging poleward a bit. I think the current look could work for us coasties yearning for snow later on in December, but I'm not sure it'll get the job done in its first week. If this is the best pattern we are going to get, I think we'd be better off if it was delayed by a few weeks. Hoping for some December 2017 fortune here! My gut tells me that we don't get completely shut out this winter.
  22. Eduardo
    I see potential there for sure, but we'd need a bit more (i.e., centering that AK low pressure more toward the Aleutians) for us snow lovers to get what we want. As depicted, this is just a non-torchy pattern, not a cold one.
  23. Eduardo
    Chris, I take it the inverse does not hold true? For example, last November featured a respectable -AO. After that, IIRC, it bounced around in December for a bit and then shot through the roof.
  24. Eduardo
    Ah that seems so long ago now. Can always hope for some of the good fortune we had in December 2017, although it really does not look good right now.
  25. Eduardo
    Would be great to slow down the firehose. It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast.
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