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Eduardo

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Everything posted by Eduardo

  1. Eduardo
    I think he meant that we need another big event like a super Niño to reshuffle the PAC and tame the firehose jet that's killed our last few winters. I tend to agree with that.
  2. Eduardo
    Loud crack of thunder just woke me up in Brooklyn Heights. What season is it?
  3. Eduardo
    I was actually thinking about this the other day too, although that winter was as backloaded as they come. Different ENSO state too, correct?
  4. Eduardo
    Would be better if that west-coast trough were to park itself just a tad offshore. Then, I think we'd be in business.
  5. Eduardo
    We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no?
  6. Eduardo
    Looks pretty! Let's get it inside of 7 days!
  7. Eduardo
    Listing all of the post-Dec. 2015 winter month departures like this really drives home how much of an impact the 15–16 super Niño had on our climate. Dec. '17/Jan. '18 stand out (and including March '18 would color this a bit more, I'd think). Still, there's no denying that the super Niño shuffled things up. What caused the cold flip for EPO-driven winters in 13–14 and 14–15? I've heard conflicting arguments about the role of the NE PAC "blob" of warm water. Examining this might provide us with hints of what to look for if we ever want to see cold winters again.
  8. Eduardo
    So far, this winter is a lesson on how a favorable AO, NAO and PNA won't overcome a bonkers +EPO and raging PAC jet. If the EPO is pinching off any supply of arctic air, then nothing else really matters. With that said, if we do manage to relax the +EPO some, then we might have a chance to score. Niña February's tend to be unfriendly to us snow lover's though (save for 2006, of course). After that, we pin our hopes to wavelength-shortening dice-rolls. We really need that PAC jet to calm the eff down if we ever want to see long stretches of winter weather around here again. That thing really has spoiled the past few winters for us.
  9. Eduardo
    Why didn't a La Niña pattern appear in 1996? The SSW continues to be the wildcard, but given how they seldom benefit our side of the globe, my money is on a mild, boring February. I think we will have our chances to cash in big time before then (and hope that I'm wrong about what comes after).
  10. Eduardo
    Let’s make a thread to debate whether and when to start threads!
  11. Eduardo
    I mean, the heart of the negative anomalies is centered over the Aleutians rather than, say, Fairbanks. So it could be worse. We definitely won't get Vodka-cold air in that pattern but, in mid and late January, it can be a glorious one in terms of snowfall. Overall, I'll take it!
  12. Eduardo
    Both the January 2013 storm and Nuri in 2014 helped establish some pretty incredible -EPO regimes, if memory serves. EPO-driven patterns can really drop the cold hammer on us. The 13/14 and 14/15 winters were two of the greatest "deep winters" of my lifetime. I wouldn't mind a reliving them one bit!
  13. Eduardo
    This times 10! If that upcoming block is real, even slight PAC improvement will put us in business! Need to tamp down that raging +EPO though. Hopefully that crazy sub-920mb NPAC storm on the EURO comes to pass and scrambles up the PAC side a bit. There's decent potential in this pattern. Nothing like the doom and gloom of last year.
  14. Eduardo
    I'm cautiously optimistic. The December snowstorm showed us that, with slight PAC improvements, our unfamiliarly less-than-craptastic ATL setup can get snow down to the coast. As we approach peak climo in mid and late January, we won't need true arctic air to get the job done (although it'd be great to get some high-ratio stuff here). All we would need to be back in business is to pinch off the flow of pure PAC puke into Canada a bit. Back that GOA vortex westward some and we can have some fun! The potential SSW-induced PV split is the wildcard and, as we've seen before, they don't always reshuffle things in our favor. Personally, given how the overall pattern already contains more potential than we've seen in a few years, I don't think it's worth rolling the dice.
  15. Eduardo
    I mean it can work if we have a rockin ATL side, right? I realize it was one-of-a-kind, but didn’t 95-96 have a less-than-ideal PAC?
  16. Eduardo
    Drove down to the docks in Lindenhurst and the waves were crashing over it. Probably gusting close to 60 now.
  17. Eduardo
    Loud clap of thunder in Brentwood (LI).
  18. Eduardo
    Would be happy to keep company like this. The race for -5SD is on!
  19. Eduardo
    I don't know if I'd go that far. Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness). But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]"
  20. Eduardo
    I measured 10" at the Brooklyn Heights promenade. Awesome December event and I hope it bodes well for us this winter!
  21. Eduardo
    Meant to type *December* warning-criteria snows. My (big) mistake ;-)
  22. Eduardo
    Still snowing in Brooklyn Heights. Yeah it could have been more, but warning-criteria snows have been few and far between over the past decade and this is more than I saw all winter last year, so I’m grateful for it. Hopefully there’s more to come!
  23. Eduardo
    Can confirm, neighbor. Wow!
  24. Eduardo
    And jump...very high!
  25. Eduardo
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