Eduardo

Oh yeah NPAC and PDO regions are pure trash right now and those are the main pattern drivers. Seems that, over the past decade or so, blobs vs. “inverse blobs” in the NPAC have played a bigger role than ENSO. Anything to that? In terms of sensible weather, it’s looking pretty boring for those of us that love deep winter patterns. I’m still confident that we’ll luck our way into some fun this year, but it’d take something pretty monumental like a SSW that favors our side of the pole to dislodge that ugly blue ball sitting up near the pole.

Mehh. Maybe. It'd certainly improve our chances from slim to less slim. However unlikely, it is possible, for example, to get a nicely-timed HP to scootch across Quebec and get the job done. Probable? No. Possible? Sure!

Based on that map, I'd conclude that the Niña is east-based (or at least east-weighted), yet I'm hearing it described as "basin-wide." What am I missing?

I remember that winter being incredibly frustrating. I think our snowfall up here was roughly average, but I remember it consisting of small snow-to-rain events. Just bad luck?

Ah this is one of the only subjects on which we part ways, Chris. I live for face-burning cold in deep winters. It’s a source of both personal pride and social ostracism.

Barfffff. I've seen enough. First two-and-a-half weeks of the month are toast!

Honestly, it's looking pretty dismal for the next few weeks (and possibly beyond) unless we manage to get some ATL blocking. True, it's only December 1st, but I'd really like to see this turn around sooner than later. I mean, that's about as bad a look as you can ask for if you like cold and snow.

It's all outta love, man!

I don’t know if I’d call it panic, but the guidance is looking pretty unfriendly for pre-Xmas cold and snow over the past few days. Reality bites sometimes. I still think we’ll get our chances between boring periods.

Oh yeah 100%! But my main point is that December is too early to wave the white flag, especially when the models have been flipping and flopping. If, come the end of the month, our snowfall total is under 3" and the models are looking craptastic, then it'll be time to close the shades. Until then, I'm holding out hope for some wintertime fun.

I couldn't agree more. I will never forget how everyone basically gave up on winter in early January 2015. What followed just weeks later was some of the deepest winter I've ever seen around here.

Nice burst of moodflakes in the city!

PAC jet is killing any chance for run-to-run consistency though. Picture holding a piece of paper in front of a water cannon and trying to predict on which side of the stream it would end up. Total crapshoot. Barring some odd “white swan event” (like a crazy SSW), it’s gonna come down to whether the Niña overwhelms the MJO progression into the better phases. It’s a close match and I’d expect some more flipping and flopping before we settle on a solution. Any expressions of confidence on any outcome here are mistaken and everything’s on the table. The safe bet IMO is something similar to last year; we’ll have our chances, but there’ll be boring periods too.

Screen name doesn’t check out ;-)

I'm not quite there yet. Still too early. If things look like shiz in a month, then yes for sure.

I never really thought about it that way, but that's spot on. I only root for PV splits as Hail Mary's when all other hope seems lost.

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015. They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later. These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes. That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

Funny you posted this. I actually just took a look at this data the other day (for my location, of course) and was pleasantly surprised by it. I'd gladly sacrifice the first half of December for a wintry Xmas period.

This X 1000! Two of the best winters of my lifetime. I hope we see that again soon!

Yeah the lack of run-to-run consistency has been problematic over the past few years (mostly because of the PAC firehose). This is admittedly somewhat of a crapshoot, but overall, I'd say the balance of factors favors a winter somewhat similar to last year's. It'll have some boring periods and probably not much biting cold thanks to a less-than-ideal PAC, but when we get ATL help, we'll score some decent snowfall events. We could always get lucky and have the Niña concentrate more too the east, have the stars allign on the ATL side like in "95–'96, or get some perfectly-timed and positioned SSW, but those are just wild cards. Last year was serviceable (at least here in NYC). I'd take that again and be happy.

C'mon with the trolling man. Did you even read the remainder of the thread?

Stuck patterns have been the norm the past few years too. Stuck model forecasting…not so much :-P. So let’s see if we can get some run-to-run consistency on this. Coincidentally, Vet’s Day 1995 featured a high-wind event. So too did 11/13/21….

Nice post, Chris! Get this look inside of 5 days and we just might have something to be excited about!

We all understand your point of view and, to be sure, there're plenty of factors that weigh in favor of below-normal snowfall this winter. But don't you agree that such an anomalous blocking episode in late Nov./early Dec. increases the probability that we see further such episodes and, in turn, overcome those factors? Also, not for nothing, but even though Anthony is a (proud) snow-weenie, I feel like you're the only one on here who regularly references JB. It doesn't do your arguments any favors.

^^This^^ Also explains the string of warm winters coupled with blockbuster snowstorms that we've seen since 2015. I wonder if the super-Niño had anything to do with shuffling things up. It was such a huge phenomenon that you'd think there'd have to be some connection.