Eduardo

Snowing on Roosevelt Island. Easily sticking even to the sidewalks!

That's a juicy look, but it's too far out for me to get excited. Ordinarily, I'd also say that the background ENSO state doesn't support it but, as @forkyfork mentioned the other day, last February's snow blitz took place despite a seemingly-unfavorable ENSO state, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Wasn't there another storm shortly after that where we were ripping snow with single-digit temperatures. For me, that was peak deep-winter!

Seeing breaks in the cloud deck off to my west (looking out over Manhattan) now. Not a flake. Still sitting at a trace for the season on Roosevelt Island.

IIRC, Feb Niña's tend to be hot garbage, but March sometimes delivers as wavelengths shorten.

I agree with everything in this post. Would be great to see!

02–03 is such an underrated winter for exactly this reason. Not much of a thaw at all—at least nothing prolonged.

I would gladly take my chances with that look versus the one we have right now. I like me some -EPO!

I would love to see 30", but I'm not sure we'll get there this year. I do agree that, assuming the current -PNA-driven pattern holds, the latter part of the season and the shortening wavelengths that it brings might present us with our best opportunities. Stanks that we're already pinning our hopes to that in December though....

Need to shove that east and re-establish "the blob." We're really missing it!

Awwww no way. Anthony's eternal optimism is genuine and I envy it!

Yeah this is kinda where I'm at right now too. Need to see some convincing sign that West-Coast trough is going to either relax or pull westward a bit. I don't think it'd take much to put us in the game, but for the next two weeks, we're not in it. Still wondering whether that cold pool west of Ecuador does us some good before the winter's out. I might be more inclined to say yes if that other cold pool east of the Aleutians weren't so robust. The lesson here is that it's really tough to overcome a crumby PAC.

Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment...

Might get deleted. but I couldn't resist. Apologies in advance to the mods. And, @snowman19, it's seriously all outta love; this place wouldn't be the same without you.

Is the typhoon just skewing the index or is it actually affecting the MJO itself (and, hence, the index is reflecting that)?

Insane!

Following this closely as well. That dark blue stripe west of Ecuador certainly can't be a bad thing for us winter weather lovers, right?

I wouldn't expect a 10-11 style flip in the PAC given the SST profile this year. But 09-10 shows that, if the ATL cooperates, even the slightest bump of that western trough can put us in business. Granted, that was a Niño, but the point remains. Solid posts, as always!

That's a tad prettier for sure (though, like you said, it's a D10 OP run). Flex the NAO on that map a bit more and your SWFE's become timely redevelopers. Some potential in this pattern, but I don't think we are where we need to be just yet. Lifting out that troughiness in the West would be ideal.

Ninja'd me, Chris. I was gonna say: "Looks like a clipper pattern." That RNA is really the fly in the ointment. So close to serviceable though!

I don't think it's about luck here (except insofar as it'd require massively good luck to get snow down to the coast). It's more a matter of pattern recognition. I can see us maybe getting a few slushy inches before a changeover. For me, the upcoming pattern has a very mehhhh 08-09 feel to it. Lil more -NAO help might give us what we need, but it's a close call.

Nada here in the city. Didn't even see any moodflakes.

Such a solid post! I am skeptical about us moving into the favorable MJO phases or experiencing an extended wintry period this year, but the fact that we are beginning in Phase 6 gives me a tad more hope. One question that's been on my mind that I've posed in my own regional forum: Wouldn't those those anomalously low SSTs off the coast of western South America have to serve us well at some point (even if the NPAC is pure suckage)?

I'd love to see it, but I'm skeptical. You'd also have to do something about that pesky -PNA before a -EPO can lean on the SE ridge too. You'd think that the pool of anomalously cold SST near western S. America would have to serve us well at some point though, even if the NPAC looks like (not-so) hot garbage.

Yeah it’s pretty meh, as advertised. Need that AK ridge to shift eastward and poleward a bit.