Eduardo

Pretty nuts in a Niña winter too. How many of us cold- and snow-lovers were banking on a cold January back in December when the hostile PAC seemed to have us doomed? Post Dec. '15's been a pretty wacky period of extreme patterns and events. Is there anything else like it on record?

FWIW, I live on Roosevelt Island and I measured 8.2” and 10.4” for each of these events, respectively.

Nice respectable MECS here in NYC, but the pics my parents are sending me from their house in Lindenhurst (SW Suffolk) are reminiscent of 2016. What a walloping out on LI!

My old neighborhood. Looks beautiful down there!

Yeah I can verify this. Getting rocked hard on Roosevelt Island too! Heavy snow and wind making for near-whiteout conditions. Much more intense than I expected.

Same on Roosevelt Island. Manhattan skyline is almost obscured! Gorgeous out there!

Be patient. You are going to do really well with this one!

Snowing nicely on Roosevelt Island. The only road we have here is snow-covered. Probably about 1.5” so far.

Well there's some science to it insofar as patterns tend to stay in place for awhile (especially these past few years). In '13–'14 and "14–'15, it was the incredible -EPO, for example. In the past few years, it seems like a progressive pattern combined with a ridge somewhere between the 'SE-ridge zone' and the 'west-based NAO zone.' Roll-of-the-dice pattern to me. Last year, we had some pretty good luck (esp. in February when, IIRC, the ridge pulled up north some, which created some blockiness). This year, it's been pretty mehhhh. As for this one, I think it's a watch-and-see-type deal, but I'd be more excited east of NYC.

Some winters, "it just wants to snow" (e.g., '93–94, '95–'96, '13–'14, '14–'15). I don't think this is one of those winters, so I'll take whatever I can get. 6–10 inches is a respectable storm!

Bump Be honest with yourselves, the model volatility is a big part of the fun and, in a setup like this, nobody knows with confidence how it's all gonna pan out. Enjoy the ride and hope for the best!!

I had this same thought. I used to live out on LI and can remember being in the modeled jackpot zone 48 hours out only to see it end up west of where it was modeled. Not saying it’ll happen this time, but it’s a possibility.

I can’t tell you how sorry I am to hear that. I know that you’ve been around these communities for a long time. You’re in my thoughts, FWIW. Wishing you all the best.

In NYC trying to figure out if it's going to snow on Saturday like:

You know it's getting real when Chris's inner weenie makes an appearance. :-) And yeah I'm def hoping for that combination! Still plenty of time between now and the weekend though.

Honestly, this has the feel of a year where, after we're all lulled into Spring mode in February, shortening wavelengths yield a freak March snowstorm before Spring actually begins. I agree that it's been a frustrating winter for us snow lovers though.

Really? To me, that's a pretty tight cluster, considering this is 96 hours out. IMO, this is not our storm if, like me, you're in the city or anywhere along the coast. This is for the skiers. But I do think we'll have our chances over the next few weeks!

That almost has a 2013–14 look to it! One of my favorite winters.

Just one run though. They could just be two ships passing in the night. We'll see tonight. This def has my attention though!

Yeah I was living on LI at the time. I remember waking up in the morning, looking outside at the clumpy, wet flakes, and thinking "eeees gon' rain." Heartbreaker of a storm for sure.

The preceding storm is gonna be a key player in this. Need it to get up into that 50/50 spot and create the perfect amount of confluence for us to avoid a washout. We are very much in the game here IMO.

Ah I'm sorry man. Hope you're doing alright!

Can someone comment on whether this has something to do with our sudden burst of cautious optimism?

I can confirm almost 8 inches on Roosevelt Island, which is only a few miles to the southwest, FWIW.

Almost 7 inches on Roosevelt Island!