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Stash

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Everything posted by Stash

  1. Stash
    Here are the current forecasted totals for Upstate NY, with the dividing line cutting right through it. Much more uniform totals over Central and Western NY. Saratoga County alone is 4"-18". If that's mostly sleet at the southern end of the county, that could be equal impact to those higher snow totals in the northern end. Still 38 with light rain at the moment.
  2. Stash
    I hit 30" for that storm up here, and even I felt inadequate compared to what he got, lol
  3. Stash
    Expecting rain, frz rain, sleet, and snow in that order. That combination of snow and ice should finally put me over 20" on the season. My largest "storm" has been about 6", so I might not quite reach that. I'll be curious to see how fast the rain/ice line progresses east tomorrow, but overall just a "meh" event. Enough of everything to be a nuisance, not enough of anything to be too interesting.
  4. Stash
    That's a back breaking amount of sleet to shovel. Some areas of ENY had several inches of sleet in the Valentine's Day storm in 07, but it was mostly heavy snow in this area from ALB on north.
  5. Stash
    I could see i-88 between the two locations as a battleground between snow and ice. Blending euro and gfs gives me a lot of sleet. I can't actually remember the last time I had a big sleet storm. You'd have to think at some point the climate will even itself out, and somehow get it to snow in ENY again this season.
  6. Stash
    Albany is a great office, but they're usually the very last ones to pull the trigger on watches and especially warnings. And that seems especially true when it involves the greater capital region counties. Maybe its a verification score thing, I dunno. Ultimately, it obviously makes no difference to what the weather will do, but it is a little surprising they didn't issue any more watches. I'm sure they will by tomorrow morning, but at that point we're only talking about a 12+ hour lead time.
  7. Stash
    Not that I spent much time looking at it earlier, but the RGEM looks a little cooler over it's last run.
  8. Stash
    Rain from Albany to Portland at maximum warmth. Yup, its certainly an 18z NAM run. Hopefully the A-Team doesn't follow suit later on Edit: As depicted, would probably mean more ice, as it'll be tough to knock out that low level cold air. Not going to spend too much time dwelling on it at this point though.
  9. Stash
    A little surprised it came in cooler, but it's certainly drier. Probably a high end advisory event as depicted here, maybe low end warning.
  10. Stash
    With the Canadian and UKMET warmer, I would think the Euro will do the same this afternoon. I still don't think it's raining into the southern half of Maine like in the RGEM however, but maybe we'll find a consensus of sorts by later tonight.
  11. Stash
    There was a time when the CMC would be one of my first go to models for longer range, but the regional version was usually relegated to long-term NAM status. This cold means business. I might sleet a lot of the time (unless the GFS is right), but my concerns for a major ice storm here have dropped a bit.
  12. Stash
    With all due respect to this model, I'd just toss this into a steaming hot vat of Canadian maple syrup for now, and go with a Euro/GFS compromise. At least until later tonight.
  13. Stash
    It's been standard wording in WSW's the last few years.
  14. Stash
    That was probably due to the heavy wet nature of the snow hanging on power lines and still-leafed tree branches right? That's equally brutal too, I'm just more concerned considering the temperatures behind this particular storm.
  15. Stash
    Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow. As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine. Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week. All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful. Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however.
  16. Stash
    I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself. A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter. Hopefully that's not the end solution. I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this. I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however.
  17. Stash
    GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do. How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug?
  18. Stash
    I thought the op 12z GFS was pretty good for most of the forum...at least the Thruway corridor.
  19. Stash
    With all due respect to the WNY crew, that looks horrific. I'm mostly content with storms missing me to my right and left all winter long, but I don't want anything to do with ice and losing power in the cold that follows! On the plus side, the front doesn't seem to get hung up (as the Euro presents anyway) so hopefully and freezing rain doesn't last long. I'd rather send this north through the great lakes and deal with rain, than any ice.
  20. Stash
    That's not pixie dust falling either. Temps are in the 30's down there right now. That must be pure cement getting blown around.
  21. Stash
    Wow! I'm almost glad I'm not in that. Experiencing a snowstorm where we can go back into a safe warm house is nice. Losing power, with possible property damage in near hurricane force winds is a little scary. That's the stuff that ye olde fisherman tales of yore are made of down there.
  22. Stash
    That ***** band in E-CT and NW-RI has just been sitting there all morning. There's going to be some impressive totals coming out of there. That other band screaming in off Cape Cod might merge with it too. Northeast CT is pretty quiet, so I don't know how many reports we'll get out of there, but glad to see the Groton/New London area doing well. They were always the snow hole of CT when I was growing up in the western hills.
  23. Stash
    Went down to the Albany/Guilderland area and it was snowing surprisingly well. Seemed to pick up once you cross the Mohawk River. Probably a solid inch. Overperformer
  24. Stash
    I know it's been a historically poor winter when my 1" from New England's blizzard tomorrow interests me. What a beast that's going to be out there.
  25. Stash
    In addition to that, this is the run I'd expect it to have a ridiculous 30" spot from my area up to Burlington. That's my anecdotal, highly unscientific red flag about this storm for anyone NW of the Boston/Worcester corridor.
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