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pondo1000

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    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    Love your optimism....we need some

    Gang, should we not be paying attention to due point temps as well? Mine at 27. If that can hold in the 20s or even 30, with good precip rates, we could be ok.

    -sn still here

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 hours ago, buckeye said:

    So this is how the hrrr sees it using Franklin county.

    - snow arrives around 9am

     - mixes changes to plain rain around 11 up to the Delaware county line.

    - rains for about 6 hours and Dilly cancels the rest of winter and Pondo threatens to move back to philly (:P)

    - around 5pm rain transitions quickly from sleet to snow and hammer time from 6pm on.

    It'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds.   I think low end is 4"  high end is 12".  Would not be surprised if someone goes under a blizzard warning tomorrow night.

     

    Hah, yup!!!!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    We're fine...the king signed and sealed this baby at 12z.....the rest is noise:).

    Time to fire up the radar and crack a beer.... 

     

    That’s what I’ve been thinking. Euro wouldn’t bomb that bad. 

    Way ahead on the beers!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    Its beyond my pay grade.  I would think no.   Then again remember it's just a computer output with a lot of moving parts.   I wouldn't be worried....we're pretty much at radar time anyway.

    Fingers crossed!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    ....a hair colder at 850 for cmh as well.... still we have about 4 or 5 hour period where the 850s could be slightly above.  (It was like that on the 00z run too)

     

    Always a catch around here. When I lived on the east coast we didn’t have to deal w/ this BS so much.

    LOL. Got ya! 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

    I think they all look a lot better. They're a bit stronger hence a tad north but I'd rather risk getting a foot than being happy with 5".

    Just realized I typoed. Smarta*s lol

    Got ya.

    As far as typo, I couldn’t resist! LOL

    • Like 1

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, JayPSU said:

    I’m sure there is, I’m more excited that our typically overly warm and north models are not too far away from a perfect hit.

    I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite

    Inside 24 hours so can’t imagine the King jumping that much. It’s been so consistent 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 minute ago, buckeye said:

    things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area.   Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane.   

    Looping through these runs,  most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours.   I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain.   Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County.

    So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here.    If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one.    Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line),  we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold.   Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know....

    *Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up.   cue Hoosier in 3...2...1...

     

     

    How did 6z Euro compare to 0z?

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

    I saw that this morning too.  Ben last night at 7:00 said 7-10 and this morning was a dramatic drop.  Bob’s animated map this morning showed Columbus in all snow too with some rain south so nothing added up

    Fat black (Bob N.) hates snow so he always undercuts amounts. He has a history of doing that. 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    yes, you and pondo kept telling me it was coming and when it hits it'll be like a wall.....that was an understatement.    I honestly think the precip rates never letting up may have helped it stay snow.

    Hah, I remember that. Flakes were tiny in the beginning!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, buckeye said:

    So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio.   This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good.

    I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs.  They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend.  For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution.  Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

    I had no idea there was a 6z & 18z euro run. When did this start?

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