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pondo1000

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    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

    Childsplay to the Boston blizzard of 2013 as well, but was still impressive. Chased the 2013 storm. Stayed in Worcester Mass. Got like 33" of snow and 85 mph winds. Was wild.

    I remember you doing that and asking if anyone wanted to come with you. You posted some pretty cool pics. 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    One of the reason I like an early spring and loathe a winter that refuses to completely give up....like last year.   I love snow on snow....it's so rare though.   Nothing like tracking the next event while you're in the midst of a warning level event.    It seems like the big dogs tend to wash away within a few days.   

    March'08 was the unicorn exception.   Not only was it the largest snowfall in cmh history, it actually had better and longer staying power than most of our mid winter events.

    Speaking of March '08....   for old time sakes.   I took this pic driving around during that storm in Westerville.    sigh

    post-622-0-88938700-1331002141.jpg

    Child’s play to the Blizzard of ‘96 in Philly! :D I was fortunate to experience both.

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    ...just sucks that it's bringing in a torch vs a cold wave.....but I would be the walking definition of ingrate if I poo-poo'd this one.

    Remember, 

    “Never trust a warm up that begins with snow.” 

    LOL. It does look like a short lived torch so hopeful we’ll have some more snow chances mid to late February. 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    Thoughts about the clipper,

    - i-70 is bullseyed by most models wrt best snow

    - snow will be falling with very cold air and surface temps, which could open the door for a fluffy over-performer.  On the flip side, such cold temps could end up turning this into a pixie blizzard too, which would hurt accums.

    - We'll have a nice 24-36 hr winter wonderland before the torch comes a knock'n.  

    - I guess I'll take the grateful approach on this one.  Assuming it doesn't find a way to fail, it's a snow event, which is why we're all here.

     

     

    Good cop is back! LOL

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

     

    We did. At least here in the city. 1/2 and 1/3 last year were -3 and -4. So far today we’re -4 and that was at noon. It’s actually risen 5 degrees since. As jb mentioned, we might have trouble dropping much to reach the -7/-8 forecasted here in the city. Haven’t been able to check local obs or any upper air soundings to make a true forecast. 

    What about wind chills?

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    Temp continues to drop.  I now have -6 as the sky clears up with bright sunshine.    If this drop continues through the afternoon, we would be comparable to the 94 outbreak where afternoon temps were between -6 and -8.

    With a real feel of -37. Ouch!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    Meh,,everything that can happen to mute or ruin a threat has happened this winter.  Why expect that to change now.

    LMAO. I know. Our luck has to change at some point......doesn’t it? Meh, you’re right. Who am I kidding?

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Just now, buckeye said:

    So we have 2 cutters in front of the day 9 event.  It is supposed to go south of us as the baroclinic boundary is pulled further south by the preceding 2 cutters.    Im not holding my breath. Either we'll be licked by the wtod or the baroclinic boundary will be pulled further south and KY will get a snowstorm while we smoke cirrus.

    On a roll!

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    I can see both sides of the OH/jbcmh discussion.    But taking into account the venue in which the debate is taking place....I feel jbcmh has the winning point.   What I mean by that is OH is trying to tell a group of weather weenie enthusiasts that 'technically' they have nothing to complain about.  That's like telling a group of rabid OSU fans that they have no right to be disappointed by a 10 and 2 season.   It might be true that on paper we're doing fine and are close to climo.   Problem with that argument is the choir you're preaching to worships to a different god than climo.  No one who reads or participates in this forum is rooting for climo to be reached.  We all have day jobs and wouldn't waste our time posting and participating here, or staying up until 1am for a euro run, if we were just seeking to reach climo every year via nickles and dimes.  We're already very good at that.  

    We are all ultimately in search of something 'memorable' to happen each winter.   Something that 10 years from now would make a top 10 list.   It really has been quite awhile since we had that.   My last truly memorable event was not a single event, but a stretch of weather that occurred in Feb of '10.   That was 9 years ago.  We have had a couple of decent storms since than, but nothing I can etch in granite as a singularly memorable event.   

    With that in mind, this winter has been miserable.  Expectations were built up tremendously.  Most of us in the southern areas of the sub missed the single event for the sub in Nov and we were all shut out in December.   Than our usual nickel and dimes showed up in January followed by a storm that was surprisingly disappointing for what could, (if not should), have been, (OH even admitted so).   Now we sit on the cusp of a possible record breaking artic intrusion while being forced to stay inside and look out the window at frozen mud and crispy grass.   The so-called clipper that once looked like an arctic boundary snow storm, (on the medium range euro), morphed into a clipper that doesn't even make it south of Chicago before hanging a left into the lakes and missing the entire state of Ohio.   Now, as we find ourselves in the midst of what JB once referred to as the climax of this severe winter, (Jan 20 - Mid Feb), we already have a several day stretch of warm weather showing up right smack in the middle of it.   

    So then what's next?  Who knows?  I believe nothing, no model, no forecasters, no indices.  I expect nothing for the rest of winter ...fending off disappointment and inviting only surprise.  

    Amen. Well said as usual. 

    • Thanks 1

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, buckeye said:

    Models have been really bad this year in the medium and short range.   That includes the euro.   We didn't really fail last weekend but it was once again one of those 'near misses' where literally a degree or two in the mid levels would have made the difference between a snow event vs. something much more memorable.   We've also had to endure outstanding storm tracks where the only ingredient missing was enough cold air.    Then we have one of the coldest air masses in several years dropping in and the clipper that preceeds it makes a quick hook and rotation to our nw leaving us with prefrontal rain to nothing.   We failed in 3 ways on that one situation, (clipper track, anafront snow, and a wave on the front).    

    It looks like our next snow chance could be a squall that could develop on the leading edge of the coldest incoming air on Wednesday.  It's not really showing up on the models yet, but I've seen that happen in the past.  After that a return flow on the departing cold yields some waa snows according to some of the models, (friday timeframe).   Then we rain and wait for our next shot.

    So far this has been a forgettable winter*...nothing that will stick in my mind in future years.   Let's see what happens with this incoming coldshot.

     

    * laughs outloud at all the 'winter of yore' calls....       winter of 'bore'

    To me, the “success” of this winter rides soley on what lies ahead. A break of about a week is ok if it means more snow chances afterwards. Longer than that, and I could care less what happens. Snow in late February or March is ok, but I’d rather a front loaded winter all day long versus winter until April. 

    • Like 2

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, OHweather said:

    I get that it hasn’t been a banner winter for many in Ohio and last weekend was unfortunate, but considering climo and how bad it was until two weeks ago...and how much time is left...it’s way too early to root on Spring IMO.  It would be another thing if it was a month or month and a half later.  

    I wouldn’t get excited for too much along the arctic front personally, if something can spin up ahead of that cold it’d be nice but seems like a long shot.  But there’s still time after this week.  The thing about a back loaded winter nowadays is everyone wants to cancel it before it gets a chance to be backloaded.  It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far). 

    I think it’s because people’s expectations were so high this year that they expected winter to be better. 

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