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pondo1000

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    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

    Crazy past month for weather. We go from -30F to record snow. Minneapolis has 30'' so far this month. There's still 2 more winter storms possible. Record could be broken by over a foot.

    It could become one of the snowiest months on record. Currently tied in 10th.

    52951174_2313845881982194_3716234780874899456_n.png.c729c9a6020696a84d4e342c0fffc419.png

    It’s Angrysummons brother!!!

    • Haha 1

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    true

    As far as tonight.  I think 2" minimum is a lock if it comes in as snow....and that's mainly because it comes in with such a thump.   How much more depends on how quickly the warm takes over.   What's interesting is that usually heavy thumping precip stays as snow until the thumping let's up and the dynamic cooling ends.   Most models are showing a pretty steady and heavy onslaught of precip coming in like a wall without many breaks.  I think high end could top 6" if it's a strong relentless thumping.    Going to be strange to see heavy snow transition to heavy rain.  Usually don't see that, it's usually heavy snow transitioning to sleet and then light rain or drizzle.    

    Should be interesting if nothing else.   Not a good sleeping night.   

    Would like to see a heavy thumping. Although once again, I’ll be sleeping while it snows!!! Can we get a daytime snow for once? LOL

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    so OHweather, an actual meteorologist,  gives his time to put together the potential scenarios for this event and this is your feedback?    

    ...and you wonder why most folks here in our sub consider you a d-bag.

    I think he just responds like this for attention. If we just ignore him, maybe he’ll go away. LOL

    • Haha 1

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 2/14/2019 at 9:33 AM, buckeye said:

    I keep expecting to see the mjo chart suddenly change to show us going into the cod or back tracking to 7...and yet it only gets stronger into 8 and 1 with each update.  Not only that, but the SOI is crashing.   JB does sound defeated but a few days after his epic meltdown in January, everything switched to a colder look.    I wonder if models will suddenly snap back like that.  If not, than yea, the mjo is certainly not ruling the pattern now.

    As of now, the rest of Feb looks like a typical hum drum depressing, uneventful, gross Ohio Feb.

    Why do I get the feeling we are in for a cold/cool spring? -NAO will probably pop. Always untimely. Shows up early fall & in spring it seems lately. 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, buckeye said:

    the extended is rapidly turning into a dumpster fire.... starting with the late weekend event that now looks like it's heading north and leaving us with light rain.   After that signs that the se ridge starts winning the battle.   I just hope it goes ape sh*t crazy if it's going to ruin snow chances....go big or go away.

    Changes w/ MJO phase? Looked like for sure it was gonna get in 8.

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    More from "glass-half-full" buckeye,

    The euro takes the mjo into 8 on Tuesday and now the gfs has it moving into 8 by end of week, (although looping it back out and back in again).  Point is the gfs is correcting to a quicker move into 8 and euro is moving faster to it as well.   All of that in combination with some hints that the endless cutter pattern the models were all showing over the last few days, is looking less "cutterish", has one of my eyebrows raised.  (just one though).

    Time will tell. Hopefully we’ll see some decent winter weather before March.

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    :facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

    It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

    He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

    So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

    It is humurous and very entertaining. This one stings though b/c of so many calling for a great winter like you said.  

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    yea just horrible.    Low pressure cuts for Michigan,   than high pressure follows,  than low pressure attacks the departing high and heads to Michigan again.... wash, rinse, repeat.

    Just bring me a torch....Feb, March 2012 sounds awesome right now.  

    This will go down as one of the epic fails in winter outlook forecasts for sure for many.

    • Like 2

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

    I don't necessarily agree.  I guess we'll have a good test coming up when the mjo starts taking the cold phases tour late next week.   We'll see what real weather is doing.

    Yeah, time will tell. Hope it works out.

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

    I doubt it. The general RNA pattern and blocking alignment molds how the MJO responds. So it goes into phase 8? What we are seeing is weakness of MJO theory. Much like the theory that low solar minimum means -NAO has been crushed as well.

    Hate to agree w/ you, but the MJO is not driving the train this winter. 

    Let's Talk Winter!!

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, vespasian70 said:

    Over performer indeed! Ended up with 7" here.

    Here's a bit of my morning commute.

     

     

    20190201_073710.jpg

    More times then not, clippers do really well in central Ohio. That’s one thing we got going for us in “the valley”

    • Like 1
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